Here's the indicator i use for determining long term bull-bear.
It's a Volatility STOP(20, 2) - 20 period True range with a multiplier of 2 on monthly charts. It works well on broad indices. A monthly close below the Vol Stop triggers the sell signal. The low of the signal candle becomes the bull-bear line.
BestFreeStockCharts.com has this indicator and so does many popular charting software.
You don't need any Gurus with all their sophisticated analysis to tell you whether we are in a bull or bear market. A 5 year old can look at this indicator and tell you the long term trends. This is of not much use for traders, but of great value to investors who invest in their 401k accounts.
Now that i have released it for public consumption, it may stop working. LOL
Next time when you folks use this indicator, just remember to give the credit to the guy who spent his precious hours to come up with this.