AAII reaches an extreme Ratio = Bull / Bull + Bear: AAII (as of 5/22/2013) 70.55%
T Theory students observed the price has hit the top of the adaptive channels and can draw a T which ends here.
I could see more decline and then a possible double top in June as some have opined.
Sentimentrader is not too extreme.
MACD crosses can often have a short term fade potential.
But it's all about government manipulation and maybe Ben was just sending up a trial balloon to gauge the effects of just threatening to pull back the cash.
Go Away In May, Why It Works
More upside expected but...the dreaded MACD cross loomingGo Away In May, Why It Works
QUOTE Stock Traders Almanac also refers to this seasonal trend.
They recommend exiting the market when the MACD crosses down in the April-May time frame.
Since 1950, November 1st to April 30th has produced 11,703 DOW points.
May 1st to October 31st has LOST 909 DOW points.
"Results have improved substantially the past 24 years.
Adding the MACD cross TRIPLES the results"
Stock Trader's Almanac shows NASDAQ having an 8 month run: November through June.
"Since 1971, a $10,000 investment becomes $351,706 during those 8 months versus a loss of 4,088 during the July to October void.
Using the simple MACD cross as a timing indicator more than doubles the gain to $874,360 and the 4 month void loss increases to $7,461."
However there is one permutation to all of this:
the "Four-Year Cycle":
"Only 4 trades are necessary every 4 years to nearly triple the results of the Best 6 Months.
Buy and sell during the post election and mid term years and then hold from the Mid-trem MACD seasonal buy signal sometime after October 1 and hold until the post election seasonal sell signal sometime after April 1st, appx. 2 1/2 years."
(See Page 60, Stock Trader's Almanac 2010 or 2011)
So if I understand their study correctly, 2013 is a "post election" year thus one should sell at a April/May MACD cross down, but then buy back following an Oct. 2013 cross back up, remaining long until the 2016 ("mid term year") late spring cross back down. Of course every year is a bit different and I would have a stop loss somewhere in there.
Jack Chan's charting style would suffice in this application: