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> Latest Discussions
viccarter @ 05-23-13 15:06
Read: 19   Comments: 0


 
> Actual Position and Stock Market Opinion Polls for Thursday
Posted by OEXCHAOS - 05-22-13 17:33 - 0 comments
YOU MUST BE REGISTERED AND LOGGED IN TO VOTE. (Log In | Register ) Remember, "Partially Long (or Short)" means less than your normal full position. E.g., If you typically use leverage, then 100% long would be "Partially Long".
Check out past Poll results here: Archive
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> Actual Position and Stock Market Opinion Polls for Wednesday
Posted by OEXCHAOS - 05-21-13 15:12 - 0 comments
YOU MUST BE REGISTERED AND LOGGED IN TO VOTE. (Log In | Register ) Remember, "Partially Long (or Short)" means less than your normal full position. E.g., If you typically use leverage, then 100% long would be "Partially Long".
Check out past Poll results here: Archive
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> They love to fade the bear flags
Posted by viccarter - 05-23-13 15:06 - 0 comments
Short term on the 45 in or 60. The criminals make careers out of fading them. 8 of 10 will resolve up not down and the 2 that go down will near break you if you buy them wrong.

Of course we are still in a nosebleed area, but don't be surprised at a gap and feel good, although I certainly won't be buying it. A 2morrow that closes 10 handles higher would not surprise me for
RUT, if so I will put longs daytrade in 2morrow, always keeping partial shorts on though.
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> with a top top here and a top top there
Posted by da_cheif - 05-23-13 15:03 - 0 comments
AAII Bullish: 48.97%........which means 51% are not bullish.....and blawgers poll from tickersense.....is not up there its neutral at 50%.......so wheres the euphoria ....... wink.gif ......the epicenter of primary wave 3 up hasnt many takers......BOOYAH
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> This is how I expect the topping process
Posted by andr99 - 05-23-13 13:36 - 0 comments
http://13k.imgshare.us/AE.png

it regards the dax, but the inversion points should be the same for the american indexes too

in the rectangules you have the distribution phase at the top that is needed before entering the LT bearish trend lasting till 2014-2015
Bottom in august then bounce back into december and then..........game over
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> AAII Bullish ratio tops 70%
Posted by Rogerdodger - 05-23-13 12:18 - 1 comments
AAII reaches an extreme Ratio = Bull / Bull + Bear: AAII (as of 5/22/2013) 70.55%
And Tickersense gets up there too:

T Theory students observed the price has hit the top of the adaptive channels and can draw a T which ends here.
I could see more decline and then a possible double top in June as some have opined.
Sentimentrader is not too extreme.

MACD crosses can often have a short term fade potential.

But it's all about government manipulation and maybe Ben was just sending up a trial balloon to gauge the effects of just threatening to pull back the cash.

The results are in:

FLASH CRASH...



QUOTE
Go Away In May, Why It Works More upside expected but...the dreaded MACD cross looming

Go Away In May, Why It Works
QUOTE Stock Traders Almanac also refers to this seasonal trend.
They recommend exiting the market when the MACD crosses down in the April-May time frame.
Since 1950, November 1st to April 30th has produced 11,703 DOW points.
May 1st to October 31st has LOST 909 DOW points.
"Results have improved substantially the past 24 years.
Adding the MACD cross TRIPLES the results"
Stock Trader's Almanac shows NASDAQ having an 8 month run: November through June.
"Since 1971, a $10,000 investment becomes $351,706 during those 8 months versus a loss of 4,088 during the July to October void.
Using the simple MACD cross as a timing indicator more than doubles the gain to $874,360 and the 4 month void loss increases to $7,461."

However there is one permutation to all of this:
the "Four-Year Cycle":
"Only 4 trades are necessary every 4 years to nearly triple the results of the Best 6 Months.
Buy and sell during the post election and mid term years and then hold from the Mid-trem MACD seasonal buy signal sometime after October 1 and hold until the post election seasonal sell signal sometime after April 1st, appx. 2 1/2 years."
(See Page 60, Stock Trader's Almanac 2010 or 2011)
So if I understand their study correctly, 2013 is a "post election" year thus one should sell at a April/May MACD cross down, but then buy back following an Oct. 2013 cross back up, remaining long until the 2016 ("mid term year") late spring cross back down. Of course every year is a bit different and I would have a stop loss somewhere in there.
Jack Chan's charting style would suffice in this application:
Read 233 times - last comment by viccarter   

> My FF
Posted by redfoliage2 - 05-23-13 11:47 - 0 comments
SPX going to close the day in green and possible gap up tomorrow.........
I covered the Remaining 50% ES Short earlier in the morning........
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> Retracement levels
Posted by tommyt - 05-23-13 11:33 - 1 comments
Retrace zones. We just rallied into the .382 retrace area, shorted a small piece

ES
Read 174 times - last comment by tommyt   

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The Financial Ad Trader
The Financial Ad Trader