5 replies to this topic

[spielchekr]

1st attempt (60% short) failed. Friday did take out the highest R2 relative to the highest close of the year 1930, but not the highest 1932 R2 itself. R2 is the main thing here, relative or not to the highest close. A close above 9457 on Monday is this most immediate and simplest threshold, but there is are infinitely variable shades of ways to triumph or fail at the R2 threshold over the coming week. I'll not short again unless I see a verified redirection below the established R2, regardless of how it may meander to that condition. Close above it, I'll place my longs. This is one place where I will not sell strength and buy weakness. This is what I'm prepared to do.

BTW, that sagging bell curve is unfavorable to the excelsiorists. Too far too fast for trend maintenance is what it says.

[spielchekr]

As for the 1975 scenario, here's my take (with all due respect to IndexTrader). The closest R2 equivalent to this last Friday on the Dow would be 3/10/1975 (0.3422). That R2 (and the 4/17/30 R2) got taken out the next day and was not seen again for quite awhile.



But that was then, when price had already taken out its 50% retrace after a bottom that much more closely resembled a "W" than our present "V".

Now 4/17/1930 was actually probing its 61.8% retracement at this R2 jucture. So with '75 as the median frame of reference, relative to price, '09 R2 is stronger and '30 R2 was weaker. Some will argue that that means we'll blow away even the '75 scenario. I would argue that there is a happy medium between both price and time to make momentum work efficiently. Just like engines will run best and last longer when run between their extreme limits. As '30 was one end of the extreme, I think '09 is the other extreme that we will attempt to turn to to redeem this market. I currently respect this pivot area, but my projected outcome today is still 180 degrees from IT's. We can agree to disagree, but like gentlemen.

[spielchekr]

Just for clarification, for a '75 closest comparision to Friday's close, let's step back one trading day. Friday was are=0.3013, 3/7/75 was are=0.3059. That is where we currently stand as of Friday's close when compared to '75 by this metric... 3/7/75.



And BTW, '75 did make an exception to the curve rule, one of a tiny handful. Will it happen again?

Edited by spielchekr, 09 August 2009 - 01:36 PM.

[spielchekr]

Just for clarification, for a '75 closest comparision to Friday's close, let's step back one trading day. Friday was are=0.3013, 3/7/75 was are=0.3059. That is where we currently stand as of Friday's close when compared to '75 by this metric... 3/7/75.



And BTW, '75 did make an exception to the curve rule, one of a tiny handful. Will it happen again?

And for better clarification, I should have said in the top post "closest equivalent to this coming Monday", not to Friday. Sorry for the confusion.

[eminimee]

It's okay...not as big a lie as some though..
http://www.traders-t...?...gid=30&st=0

Edited by eminimee, 09 August 2009 - 03:18 PM.

[spielchekr]

It's okay...not as big a lie as some though..
http://www.traders-t...?...gid=30&st=0

No lie about this... I need to see a down day tomorrow, or else this becomes a remote possibility (and I won't have lied after all and will prepare go long). 1-1/4% down or better is a decent start. Otherwise pigs and bulls start cross-breeding .