15 replies to this topic

[IYB]

This earnings season began with stealth distribution and is ending with overt distribution. In all likelihood we'll get a bounce somewhere ahead, but the bigger picture is just looking worse and worse with a record breaking string of distribution days piling up.....D

Or maybe the word should be "deja vu". Seems to be a pattern here. Just some Friday afternoon musings.

It started with AA. Then it was INTC. Then another.... and another..... and another. Each one a blow out. With each blow-out report the fut's moved way up in overnight markets, and the cash market followed. But then what? How many times has this story been told this month? MSFT is just the latest in that long series.

And exactly how many of those stocks are now higher than where they opened on the news release?

Good weekend all, D

http://stockcharts.c...56&are=9935.png
http://stockcharts.c...56&are=3099.png
http://stockcharts.c...56&are=9794.png

[CLK]

Are you turning IT bearish now ? What happened to the "run for the roses" after the next dip in NYSI ?

[IYB]

Are you turning IT bearish now ? What happened to the "run for the roses"
after the next dip in NYSI ?

Excellent question CLK. I'll let the SS make the call, and certainly do not rule out a RFTR. But my point in this post is that we are seeing more and more evidence that the Intermediate Term trend is in real trouble. My RFTR theory is based on 2003 fractals. I'll be studying 2003 Q4 volume patterns tonight when I get some time. I'm very curious to see whether the period that proceeded the last part of the IT run into Jan-Feb 2004 was accompanied by distribution patterns on the major averages to the degree we are seeing here. I'd be surprised if it was, but will keep an open mind.....

Edited by IYB, 28 October 2009 - 04:38 PM.

[tradesurfer]

summation index is turning into a freefall

http://stockcharts.c.../McSumNYSE.html

[IYB]

summation index is turning into a freefall

http://stockcharts.c.../McSumNYSE.html

The chart will update sometime around 17:00 EST. Just how I look at things fwiw....

...the level of NYMO (and other related McO's) is ....anchoring down on price. If you've seen James Cameron's "The Abyss", the NYMO is kinda like that crane that collapsed from up above and fell into the abyss, and then began pulling their sub (price) with it.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&st=2009-02-01&en=2009-12-21&i=p78799162625&a=175707857&are=16.png

[goldswinger]

summation index is turning into a freefall

http://stockcharts.c.../McSumNYSE.html

Which kind:

Iguazu Falls, widest falls in the planet http://www.bp-reiseb..._wasserfall.htm

or Angel Falls, Tallest falls in the planet. http://z.about.com/d.../innerangel.jpg

[CLK]

Are you turning IT bearish now ? What happened to the "run for the roses"
after the next dip in NYSI ?

Excellent question CLK. I'll let the SS make the call, and certainly do not rule out a RFTR. But my point in this post is that we are seeing more and more evidence that the Intermediate Term trend is in real trouble. My RFTR theory is based on 2003 fractals. I'll be studying 2003 Q4 volume patterns tonight when I get some time. I'm very curious to see whether the period that proceeded the last part of the IT run into Jan-Feb 2004 was accompanied by distribution patterns on the major averages to the degree we are seeing here. I'd be surprised if it was, but will keep an open mind.....

Yes, internals are very weak. NYMO and NYAD are hitting lows not seen in Q4 03,
though NYSI looks almost identical. If it crashes right here it would be an anomaly
for a bull market. I missed my short entry, so I'm not chasing under these conditions.

[nimblebear]

and just think. NO Hindenburg Omen yet. This could be one of those slow drip drip drip declines that go on forever, with people saying BUY BUY BUY, thinking every drop is gonna be the bottom of the correction. only to find there is no bottom until we are back around the march lows. The market fools the mostest all of the time. expect the unexpected. P.S. I do love the gold correction. That market is a true bull, whereas general equites in the US, is questionable on anything considered of this more than a bear market rally that may be ending sooner than most anticipate. I can't believe how many calls I saw for SNP 1200 by year end.

[K Wave]

My RFTR theory is based on 2003 fractals.

These fractals look WAY more like 1938 and 1975 than 2003. The context within the overall longer term matches up better as well... just my take.

[IYB]

My RFTR theory is based on 2003 fractals.

These fractals look WAY more like 1938 and 1975 than 2003. The context within the overall longer term matches up better as well... just my take.

Well I can {now, having looked at the data} tell you that based on distribution that we can throw out the 2003 fractal and the "run for the roses" expectation. There were exactly four distribution days in the month prior to the start of that last 2003 run. Have been eleven here- nearly three times the distibuative activity. Apples and oranges. This is NOT 2003.....