10 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Will next week be down?
Last week I noted that the Sentimentrader s/t signal was the most bullish it's been since last July.
In both instances a long down-trend line was broken to the upside.
However June's "Triple Witching" did not allow for much movement either way after that sentiment extreme and the market's are just above the flatline for the year, and the Right Shoulder of that much watched H&S pattern continues to develop.

Trader's Almanac notes that the week after June Triple Witching, the DOW has been down 17 of the last 19 and 10 in a row.
Mike Burk's stats confirm:
"By all measures average returns have been negative over the coming week and the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle has been the worst of all."


Next week's "scheduled" news may introduce some bigger action:

Monday:
The latest out of Europe will likely determine Monday's session.

Tuesday:
FOMC Meeting Begins
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET

Wednesday:

New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:15 PM ET

Thursday:

Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

Friday:

GDP
8:30 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET

US Economic Calendar LINK

Edited by Rogerdodger, 19 June 2010 - 12:53 PM.

[Rich]

good info. thanks roger.

[Rogerdodger]

good info. thanks roger.

Thanks.

Sentiment overall is not extrodinary as seen in these bullish RATIO numbers,
certainly nowhere near the end of April (TOP) readings:

Thrift S Plan: 06/25/10 56%
AAII: (as of 6/16/2010) 58%

Tickersense: 06/18/10 62%
Thrift S Plan: 06/18/10 55%
AAII: (as of 6/9/2010) 44%

Tickersense: 06/11/10 66%
Thrift S Plan: 06/11/10 54%
AAII: (as of 6/2/2010) 48%

Tickersense: 06/05/10 55%
Thrift S Plan: 06/04/10 54%
AAII: (as of 5/26/2010) 37%

Tickersense: 05/28/10 46%
Thrift S Plan: 05/28/10 27%
AAII: (as of 5/19/2010) 55%

Tickersense: 05/21/10 60%
Thrift S Plan: 05/21/10 59%
AAII: (as of 5/12/2010) 50%

Tickersense: 05/14/10 57%
Thrift S Plan: 05/14/10 40%
AAII: (as of 5/5/2010) 58%

Tickersense: 05/07/10 55%
Thrift S Plan: 05/07/10 72%
AAII: (as of 4/28/2010) 59%

04/30/10 Tickersense: 75%

[IYB]

good info. thanks roger.

Indeed. Thanks, RD.

"Nibblin' on sponge cake
Watching the sun bake
All of those tourists covered with oil....."

[arbman]

I already made up my mind from the lows, this is a bear market rally or at least a rally within a long correction that will not conclude before fall at a lower low. In that respect, I expect the unusal and a rally early in the week and a lower close for the week. I expect a spike over 1120 that will quickly be given back after the Fed day, perhaps we can see as high as 1137-1142 resistance areas right below the gap. I think the euphorism will just quickly come back and kill the upside from here with any rally, I am pretty certain that a pull back down to 1100 will be also very aggressively speculated for further upside. Fed needs to heavily step in and I strongly doubt they will do so yet, they did what they needed to be done for now to calm down the panic, I think this is all they are doing for now, not too hot not too cold approach. We need persistent short selling of the rallies and I am not sure it is happening yet... The cycles have given us lower confirmed targets for fall, I stick with them for now bearing a little further spike higher. For the longer term, I keep at the back of my mind that the breath promised higher highs when the last highs were made as the cumulative made new highs back then, but not right away. I think we will see a decent rally at the end of the year. Check out the monthly moving average cluster around 1170-1220 and you will know what I mean. The market was up against a massive resistance and it needs several months to digest the supply... Anyhow, best of luck in your trading...

Edited by arbman, 19 June 2010 - 04:33 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

"I expect the unusal and a rally early in the week and a lower close for the week."

For whatever their reason, Tuesday is stamped with a cute little bull in Trader's Almanac.
I BS'd that Monday might sell off at the close and catch early bears with a rally Tuesday, then sell a bit into week's end.
But that is only worth what you paid for it.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 19 June 2010 - 10:49 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

"Nibblin' on sponge cake
Watching the sun bake
All of those tourists covered with oil....."

I just saw that. Ouch!

There's nothing like a tar ball to keep your flips from flopping.
I have a pair of Jimmy's Margaritaville-brand flip flops.
That way I can be on vacation anytime I want, which is daily.

Gulf oil spill: Jimmy Buffett tells Florida beachgoers to stay ...
‎Los Angeles Times (blog) - Jun 5, 2010
Musician Jimmy Buffett, wearing his Margaritaville-brand flip-flops, stood Saturday on a pier at tar-ball blotched Pensacola Beach and led a pro-beach rally ...

Edited by Rogerdodger, 19 June 2010 - 10:47 PM.

[IYB]

"Nibblin' on sponge cake
Watching the sun bake
All of those tourists covered with oil....."

I just saw that. Ouch!

There's nothing like a tar ball to keep your flips from flopping.
I have a pair of Jimmy's Margaritaville-brand flip flops.
That way I can be on vacation anytime I want, which is daily.

Gulf oil spill: Jimmy Buffett tells Florida beachgoers to stay ...
‎Los Angeles Times (blog) - Jun 5, 2010
Musician Jimmy Buffett, wearing his Margaritaville-brand flip-flops, stood Saturday on a pier at tar-ball blotched Pensacola Beach and led a pro-beach rally ...

>>And for Buffett, crude oil washing ashore could spoil summer revenues as he opens his $50-million Margaritaville Beach Hotel in Pensacola Beach.<<

Man that is one sad sad story. Buffet's Margaritaville in Waikiki is my absolute favorite bar....an amazing place....flip-flops welcome of course. Can't even imagine what his new Florida resort is like. This is gonna hurt. But this is just one very minor side story compared to the magnitude of this sad disaster.....

Edited by IYB, 19 June 2010 - 11:46 PM.

[zoropb]

Tks RD like that chart. My Tscores has a negative overnight from the close at 4:15 and I do not see how it will be any better by the cash open. So unless a miracle happens overnight we should be in the red tomorrow. Being a Floridian for 42 years this disaster really hits home. The Sarasota beach here in Florida is still real nice thank goodness. To save a few bucks and not install higher standards of drilling safety has pissed me off to no end. With that said some of these singers like Lady gaga is calling for a boycott of BP. This is the most stupid thing anyone can do now. We need this company to stay in biz to pay for this not to go bankrupt and then we end up flipping the bill. I am going to fill up BP this morning for my ride to Miami Beach today. I want them to pay and pay and pay so support them at least until everything is paid. We will also be supporting the folks in need on the coast. The company will not be making diddly during this mess. Ok there is my 2 cents.

[Rogerdodger]

The Sarasota beach here in Florida is still real nice thank goodness.

So far the typical sensationalized news reports have caused some of the greatest unnecessary economic damage, Such as:

Tarballs found on beach at Panama City...

Man just look at those tarballs on this live cam:

Panama City Beach Cam

Alabama Beach Cam

Texas Beach cam

Edited by Rogerdodger, 20 June 2010 - 10:46 AM.