6 replies to this topic

[orange]

Sometimes the geometry of the market surprises me.

• 3 times we have topped around 1340SPX and saw a 40 point decline to 1300SPX which was wicked. Each of the previous 2 times we rallied almost immediately after.
• The V's shown are identical in price and time (copy). Both were approximately 1 trading month to go from top-bottom-top.

I'm not implying we will see a rally here immediately. I'm just pointing out some very interesting patterns/action.

[Rogerdodger]

It's also amazing where those bottoms took place in the lunar cycle:
http://stockcharts.c...t?obj=ID3729231
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p78169869950&a=189022404&r=257.png

[arbman]

Are being conditioned to buy or sell? I am fading this low, we need something that will get people to sell short, here whenever we rally people immediately rush to buy the calls. Today was no different. Yes, I know perhaps we do get that rally. When is the Greece resolution? Tonight?

[colion]

Not to mention a low at Fib .618 of the June-July leg.

[SemiBizz]

It's schizoid. You look at the Nasdaq Chart it is full of swiss cheese with big ole gap holes going both up and down. The days of buy and hold and climb a wall of worry are OVAH. It's all overnight gaps, catch the bulls one day, and the bears another by programmed illiquidity. This is the same darn game the F'eds have been playing for eons now... In the old days, if Greenspan so much as farted the market would panic about 1/4 hike or cut in the rates... Now that tool is no longer available, so we have the Fed, the Treasury, and the gang of brokers really all working toward the same aim and that's to try to keep the game going as long as possible... And keep on guessing, Armageddon or Utopia, QE3 or no QE3, Inflation or Deflation... the labels have changed, but it's the same old game... Programs have been crafted to skillfully extract reactions from counterparties... exploratory bids are pushed at lightning speed to detect and render the volume buyers and sellers... The machines trading it don't feel any greed or fear, they just execute, and that's what traders need to do... It is a confidence game, very high stakes poker if you are an institution... You just can't make the mistake of getting on the wrong side of the trade, and that's why you better have ironclad stops... because whether the Train is moving North or South, if your money gets left at the station and the Train pulls away, you have to hope and pray that train is coming back your way so you can try to jump back on board... if you look at that chart, buy and hold bagholders have seen their cash riding on that train... a train to net nowhere...Sideways, with psychotic highs and lows. So you gotta execute, not get greedy, not get fearful, have a plan, do your homework or get killed. This is a deadly market if you get on the wrong side of it, because one day that train is not coming back for a long, long time. Don't forget, the job of the market is to separate you from your wallet....

[Cirrus]

It's schizoid.

You look at the Nasdaq Chart it is full of swiss cheese with big ole gap holes going both up and down. The days of buy and hold and climb a wall of worry are OVAH. It's all overnight gaps, catch the bulls one day, and the bears another by programmed illiquidity.

This is the same darn game the F'eds have been playing for eons now... In the old days, if Greenspan so much as farted the market would panic about 1/4 hike or cut in the rates... Now that tool is no longer available, so we have the Fed, the Treasury, and the gang of brokers really all working toward the same aim and that's to try to keep the game going as long as possible...

And keep on guessing, Armageddon or Utopia, QE3 or no QE3, Inflation or Deflation... the labels have changed, but it's the same old game...

Programs have been crafted to skillfully extract reactions from counterparties... exploratory bids are pushed at lightning speed to detect and render the volume buyers and sellers... The machines trading it don't feel any greed or fear, they just execute, and that's what traders need to do...

It is a confidence game, very high stakes poker if you are an institution...

You just can't make the mistake of getting on the wrong side of the trade, and that's why you better have ironclad stops... because whether the Train is moving North or South, if your money gets left at the station and the Train pulls away, you have to hope and pray that train is coming back your way so you can try to jump back on board... if you look at that chart, buy and hold bagholders have seen their cash riding on that train... a train to net nowhere...Sideways, with psychotic highs and lows.

So you gotta execute, not get greedy, not get fearful, have a plan, do your homework or get killed.

This is a deadly market if you get on the wrong side of it, because one day that train is not coming back for a long, long time.

Don't forget, the job of the market is to separate you from your wallet....

One of the best posts I've read here in while that's non-TA. IMHO this should be pegged at the top and saved...

Obviously I agree wholeheartedly. It's still possibile to 'trade' a small account with a couple positions or trade the index itself but if you are trying to manage multiple positions in larger quantity things have changed. This market is borderline psychotic. On one hand we have ample liquidity in a bull market. On the other side there are macro situations in play that could very rapidly spiral and vaporize the liquidity causing a rapid and sharp change in trend.

[Lee48]

Nice pattern and geometry orange! Lets see, 70 points up from this low is back to 1370, immediately...