8 replies to this topic

[ogm]

Ok, this nasty market has been keeping hope alive long enough.

But the market just keeps trending down. Relentless grind. Futures rally into the close, just to open lower the next morning.

Something has got to give here. And in the absence of good news.. that something is "hope".

The chart looks remarkably similar to July last year.

Edited by ogm, 12 July 2012 - 04:56 AM.

[ogm]

Here it comes.

[StillLearnin]

Here it comes.

OGM...

I missed your chart set up! You may be right but if it happens im guessing not today.
I could be wrong though...its just a trade.

Taking the other side for a short trade. Long at ES 1324.75 ...looking for 10 pts. This
trade has a stop of 1318.25. Real oversold ST and a tad bit oversold IT now in a bull market.
Looking for a little MR.

SL

[ogm]

Here it comes.

OGM...

I missed your chart set up! You may be right but if it happens im guessing not today.
I could be wrong though...its just a trade.

Taking the other side for a short trade. Long at ES 1324.75 ...looking for 10 pts. This
trade has a stop of 1318.25. Real oversold ST and a tad bit oversold IT now in a bull market.
Looking for a little MR.

SL

You may get your 10 points in 5 minutes after the open. Volatility is about to increase. One thing that was bothering me is how low VIX was during this grind down, No concerns, no fear. I think either today or tomorrow is a big down day, that may not bounce.


The way I see it... while the market was holding trendline, and the structure was relatively bullish, and we were above 50 day moving average, things looked like they may bounce any day now. Now this "pullback in the uptrend" is turning into a real bloodbath which is likely to get much worse as technicals break down. Shorts won't be as eager/scared into covering and bulls that were holding out hope will start capitulating. So the trend pressure is about to increase. Oversold is likely to get even more oversold.

Btw, we're not even that oversold yet. Internals were holding up OK untill today, today all positive divergences should go bust too. And RSI has plenty of room to drop even on 60 min, and i'm not even talking on daily. Daily is just starting to get going.

Edited by ogm, 12 July 2012 - 06:07 AM.

[ogm]

To be honest I'm actually hoping this market bounces at the open. I got stopped out yesterday on yet another fakeout bounce into the close, and want to get short. So lets "hope" ..lol Maybe we can bounce to test the broken trendline from below.

Edited by ogm, 12 July 2012 - 06:42 AM.

[StillLearnin]

Taking the other side for a short trade. Long at ES 1324.75 ...looking for 10 pts. This
trade has a stop of 1318.25. Real oversold ST and a tad bit oversold IT now in a bull market.
Looking for a little MR.

That was a typo. My stop is 1308.25. It needs room.

[ogm]

With Buffet pouring gasoline on the fire , looks like I'll have to chase them down after all. I just don't see this thing bouncing for any reason whatsoever. I smell a big down day. Real confiedence breaker. Busted trendlines, moving averages, internals. I hate chasing, so will have to go very small. But this may be the real move finally. Would hate to miss it.

[StillLearnin]

OGM I agree everything i look at intra day does not look good either. IWM out pacing by .6-.7%. RSP by .4%...TBT..RTH! All say not likely to go up. My trade is a bet saying that 1334.75 is going to be hit way more often then not than 1308.25 under current context as i see it. Not always but most often. I agree though VST damage has been done and its also more likely that if my trade is going to be a winner the market base right around here for the remainder of the day to flatten out some of the VST moving averages that are facing down. Judging by IWM and RSP it does not seem super likely but we will see. SL

[ogm]

Looks like a decent entry point right here at 1332. Testing broken trendline from below ? I'm in. Pretty tight stop.