17 replies to this topic

[Mr Dev]

i am going to issue a market warning here today ... and for better clarity i want to call it a warning at stage 1 of 3 before calling it a crash alert
as the first pieces of the puzzle are there .

going forward im expecting to see a surprise drop for the markets (-200 / -400 DOW) and then bounce before issuing a stage 2 warning.

there is the possibility for that bounce to rally back up to fresh highs and depending on the quality of the rally i'll asses whether to move up and
issue the stage 2 warning. since we can extend moves as we test highs.. i think this is the best approach.
trade safe.

Edited by Mr Dev, 12 February 2013 - 03:45 PM.

[denleo]

I agree. The first sell off will be bought with enthusiasm and will probably send the market to higher highs. But overall the market is beginning to look bearish longer-term. Denleo

[kssmibotm]

In the words of the great Yogi Berra, "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future". A corollary to that quote is "It is difficult to make stock market predictions, especially crashes". Be happy just to be able to predict the next downturn. Crashes are simply too rare to predict. Nevertheless, I appreciate you sharing your thoughts, and I look forward to your stage 2 and 3 alerts. KMB

[andiron]

Dev.. while some are looking at 2010 spring rally as a possible analog, each sell off since 2009 has a unique structure....

[ogm]

In the words of the great Yogi Berra, "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future". A corollary to that quote is "It is difficult to make stock market predictions, especially crashes". Be happy just to be able to predict the next downturn. Crashes are simply too rare to predict. Nevertheless, I appreciate you sharing your thoughts, and I look forward to your stage 2 and 3 alerts.

KMB

Crash may be too strong of a word, but a "significant decline" isn't out of the question. Considering that the market is getting euphoric for no reason after a 5 year run. Whatever it may be, it is likely that when the top forms its going to be a serious one.

Edited by ogm, 12 February 2013 - 06:25 PM.

[viccarter]

Dev..

while some are looking at 2010 spring rally as a possible analog, each sell off since 2009 has a unique structure....

Indeed. Rally's as well (having different structure).

[POKERSAM]

i am going to issue a market warning here today ... and for better clarity i want to call it a warning at stage 1 of 3 before calling it a crash alert
as the first pieces of the puzzle are there .

going forward im expecting to see a surprise drop for the markets (-200 / -400 DOW) and then bounce before issuing a stage 2 warning.

there is the possibility for that bounce to rally back up to fresh highs and depending on the quality of the rally i'll asses whether to move up and
issue the stage 2 warning. since we can extend moves as we test highs.. i think this is the best approach.
trade safe.

[POKERSAM]

i am going to issue a market warning here today ... and for better clarity i want to call it a warning at stage 1 of 3 before calling it a crash alert
as the first pieces of the puzzle are there .

going forward im expecting to see a surprise drop for the markets (-200 / -400 DOW) and then bounce before issuing a stage 2 warning.

there is the possibility for that bounce to rally back up to fresh highs and depending on the quality of the rally i'll asses whether to move up and
issue the stage 2 warning. since we can extend moves as we test highs.. i think this is the best approach.
trade safe.

[MikeyG]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRINQ&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&i=p59662974904&a=289966086&r=1360722754922.png

Edited by MikeyG, 12 February 2013 - 09:33 PM.

[ogm]

But this time its different....

Sentiment More Bullish Than 99% Of All Prior Readings
http://www.zerohedge...-prior-readings

Edited by ogm, 12 February 2013 - 10:04 PM.