The only bullish hope is going to be to nevertheless push price up above the last high and ignore the divergence until June 2nd. The next chart is a par-trend 20-day sample with future prices plotted at the 61.8% pendulum level (a close proxy for maintaining current price momentum). I've played around with several different scenarios, and they all looked as bad or worse than this. BTW, that like 38 points ABOVE last Tuesday's high where we would see the MACD again at last Tuesday's level. You can tell from the smoothed-out MACD of the 1st chart (look again) that it's geared to dip throughout the remainder of May, no matter what. It's got a powerful roll to it that shows it's influence in the next chart.
(Refresher: The 20-days-ahead prices plotted on the chart above are derived from my par-trend technique. The next chart shows what this is. The 20ma in a straight-line condition with those prices all plotted at 61.8% of the way to a tag of a complete positive pendulum momentum reversal from the last maximum negative 20ma slope. The pink line is where price would cause a horizontal 20ma. The dashed green line is the ratio level of actual price vs. price that would induce a flat (horizontal) 20ma slope. I like using this method as a means to project future price action that's comparable to recent price action in order to see the resulting effects on many indicators.)
BTW, I tried modifying prices on this chart, including raising those two low prices on this coming Monday and Tuesday up to and beyond the 20ma. That (and other price modifications I tried) actually made the divergence problem either no better or just made it worse, as I said before. I can find no way to cross above last Tuesday's high in the next 20 trading days without encountering that negative MACD divergence. So price will have to boldly defy momentum divergences and wait for them to catch up at the beginning of June, or else. I'm not saying it can't be done, I'm just saying that's the only way it's going to get done if it's going to get done at all. So giterdun, bulls.
