8 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

and that's a big "IF" at the moment until we close below 1260...
"IF" the top is in on spx...I would see it like this (charts are in loose order).....RUT could make another high....but spx doesn't need to....it could make a secondary high... RUT could also have double topped and won't get that "one more high".
Full count is on the second chart..and although there is a ton of info on the weekly..it's worth a look as it's suggesting to me the top is in. The other little hint that the top maybe in is the fact that OEX could not close above 604 last week....a spike high and collapse....604 was the high in mid 06 and breakout point later that year. NDX may have completed a wave 2 up of a 5 wave "C" wave down....but I'd rather see the 1990/2000 area hit first. My dream scenario would be to see RUT and NDX make new highs for this move....while SPX and OEX put in secondary highs. TWT...
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p20818058855&a=79672211&r=1430.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&i=p66131416321&a=93045759&r=8289.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=7&mn=6&dy=0&i=p55869806190&a=57601821&r=9945.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=60&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p22322016698&a=79663062&r=3663.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=W&yr=6&mn=2&dy=0&i=p30044246406&a=143888228&r=2389.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUT&p=60&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p45986442069&a=107282353&r=9749.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX&p=D&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&i=p20179091446&a=116964038&r=4876.png

[espresso]

Useful nice charts! My SS agree that top is in. Tech are rolling over. Only bounce will come in a few days from commodity energy metals complex. But I doubt it will pump up much the indexes this time. jmho

[nimblebear]

Its a secular bear. Dood in a Mauldin letter this week says its highly probable we hit the 2002/2003 lows again. So this is just a bear market within a secular bear. Says if this were bull we would have no 300 point up days on the DOW. we've had 5 or so. from 02 to 07 we had zero. bear rally's they are called.

[mss]

Nice chart work as always Mr "T" and I think your reasoning is correct. I don't do A-B-Cs but thought a quick simple look at SPX, NYA & VLE might add some visual insight. Just my amateur analysis. [attachment=8017:spx8198.jpg] [attachment=8016:nya8198.jpg] [attachment=8018:vle8188.jpg] Best to you, mss

[humble1]

mss: timely chart, once again. looks like we will gap through that rising support line: VERY SIGNIFICANT ! that is the kind of action which tends to confirm that we are on a quick ride to spx 776. regards, H1

[traderpaul]

Without using trend lines and e-wave.....Would you say the stimulus was responsible for the counter trend rally?.....Now the money was spent.....What is next?

[humble1]

TP: my blab on the CT rally is that it was mainly because of the fear and smear campaign against the shorts: we'll sue you if you pass along negative "rumors", the SEC will investigate short selling, blah ... blah ... blah. that mattered; now. the market is weaker. yes, the stimulus helped the mindset but just put things off. that money had to be BORROWED !

[cgnx]

Who cares? Whatever kind of market it is, it sucks. This is not the kind of market you want to stick your neck out in. Placing small bets here and there, isnt the way to make big money. You have to make big bets. Tell me someplace you would stick half your money in? Didn't think so. Until then, your just waxing it.

[eminimee]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&i=p90514404207&a=88997044&r=4021.png