13 replies to this topic

[IYB]

I sense from comments and questions I read here that a number of traders at FF seem to think that the SS's flip wildly from one side to the other, getting whipsawed with every market whim. Just wanted to point out that yesterday's rout to the tune of over 80 SPX points and 660 DJ points to downside had no effect on the buy signal currently in place. By the close of that rout yesterday, 5 of 7 remained on buy side, and today all seven are right back on buy side.

I see the buy signal from last week as a significant one- indicating an IT advance is underway- scary pullbacks like yesterday's notwithstanding. I remain a buyer of weakness for reasons explained yesterday.

Just a point of order. Carry on. D

Following are the Seven Sentinels. Time doesn't permit me to post the rules right now, but I will try to do so tomorrow if possible. The rules have "evolved" a bit over time, so that I believe that they give less frequent but more reliable signals than in the early days. Their essence is simplicity. They are not meant to be a "silver bullet" or the "holy grail", nor have I ever claimed them to be. But rather, they are just a tool - just one trader's best effort to define the prevailing direction of market momentum. My central premise of trading is that price follows momentum, so the application for trading should be apparent. At any rate, they work well for me, in conjunction with a number of other tools which tend to keep me grounded with regard to the ever important and evolving "context" of the market.

One final note: the current "buy signal" configuration is one of the best I've seen in a long long time. This may say more, however, about the durability of what I strongly believe to be the IT rally underway, than the ultimate amplitude of that move.

Good trading all, D

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRINQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p91351991372&a=132242060&r=5671.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRIN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p81980886219&a=132242143&r=5289.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p19594754399&a=132241851&r=7973.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p26405502349&a=132240665&r=2149.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAHL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p10831498101&a=132242597&r=3475.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYHL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p09668266403&a=132243114&r=7420.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p96303392716&a=132243312&r=5145.png
xxxx

[maineman]

My Christmas wish list: Daily SPX RSI 14 over 50 Weekly SPX MACD positive. NYSI sumamtion index over its SMA 20. A sustained close above 920 on the SPX. And, oh yes, World Peace. mm

[OEXCHAOS]

How are rates holding, Don? Mark

[IYB]

How are rates holding, Don?

Mark

To use a market reporting term, we'd have to call them "mixed" this morning, Mark. That is, CW and a couple others are quoting about 5.375%, but I have one lender, CMG, which is quoting a new low 5% this morning for conforming 30-year fixed! That's why it's good to work with a broker rather than a bank. I think what is happeneing is that some of the big guys like CW have been so flooded with refi apps that they are quoting high to slow down the new biz inflow that they are ill equiped to handle with current staff, whereas some of the little guys have unused capacity and are quoting agressively low to fill up their pipelines. But overall, it looks good.

Btw, as to whether these rates have much effect on refi decisions....I think I've had only two refi all year, the rest purchases. But just yesterday afternoon, following a broadcast email I sent out, I had 11 refi applications!

Very Best, D

[zman]

How are rates holding, Don?

Mark

To use a market reporting term, we'd have to call them "mixed" this morning, Mark. That is, CW and a couple others are quoting about 5.375%, but I have one lender, CMG, which is quoting a new low 5% this morning for conforming 30-year fixed! That's why it's good to work with a broker rather than a bank. I think what is happeneing is that some of the big guys like CW have been so flooded with refi apps that they are quoting high to slow down the new biz inflow that they are ill equiped to handle with current staff, whereas some of the little guys have unused capacity and are quoting agressively low to fill up their pipelines. But overall, it looks good.

Btw, as to whether these rates have much effect on refi decisions....I think I've had only two refi all year, the rest purchases. But just yesterday afternoon, following a broadcast email I sent out, I had 11 refi applications!

Very Best, D

do you have any thoughts where you see these rates going? I heard someone on cnbs mention somewhere around 4 or so

[ogm]

Summations grinding up after making positive divergence, market will be grinding up. Internals have bottomed. Most people will miss buying this dip. Parabola in bonds also in its terminal move. Asset reallocation on the way.

[vitaminm]

5 out of 7 SS charts don't show current price!

http://finance.yahoo...ource=undefined

http://finance.yahoo...ource=undefined

[IYB]

do you have any thoughts where you see these rates going? I heard someone on cnbs mention somewhere around 4 or so

No...I wish I did. I really believe that at some point hyper-inflation will rear it's ugly head and that rates will go up- way up. So I'm not looking this gift horse in the mouth- locking in near 5%. If we go lower, we can always look at refi-ing again. Most loans here are $500K+, so a small move in rates makes a big difference in payment.

[IYB]

5 out of 7 SS charts don't show current price!

Exactly. They update EOD....which is what a position trader (as opposed to a day trader) like me needs in order to cut down on whipsaw and give durable signals. Good trading, D

[zman]

do you have any thoughts where you see these rates going? I heard someone on cnbs mention somewhere around 4 or so

No...I wish I did. I really believe that at some point hyper-inflation will rear it's ugly head and that rates will go up- way up. So I'm not looking this gift horse in the mouth- locking in near 5%. If we go lower, we can always look at refi-ing again. Most loans here are $500K+, so a small move in rates makes a big difference in payment.

thanks mate...my wife and I want to buy a house sometime next year of course hoping to sell ours...the market here in oklahoma has been pretty good...just trying to figure out locking in a rate now or waiting till first part of the new year..any suggestions?