SPX at the trend line support testing its break out neckline...

We will probably get the sudden death at some point in May, we'll see, but my analysis favors a low around here, perhaps we get a fake break down in the morning... Certainly the fear is not about inflation from here. I unfortunately did not put my money where my big mouth is, but I covered all swing shorts after riding down Bin Laden's demise a bit and I did try to play intraday swings higher. At this juncture, I am more interested to go long for a swing, not necessarily to new highs, PM is quite o/s, we may see a good bounce across the board a bit at least...

Edited by arbman, 05 May 2011 - 11:01 PM.

I bought a little SSO at the close thinking that the employment news has been so bad that the traders may be expecting the worst tomorrow (I do!).
Also fear of the fat finger anniversary may add a touch of bearishness.
Sentimentrader and TSP both showed an increase in bearishness.

In the movie "Liar Liar" somebody asked Jim Carrey what he was doing.
He replied: "I'm kicking my @ss. Do you mind?"
I may be saying that tomorrow.
The weekly candle is long and red and close to being a bearish engulfing.
Either way it shows a lower low.


"I'm kicking my @ss. Do you mind?": http://www.youtube.c...feature=related

Edited by Rogerdodger, 06 May 2011 - 12:04 AM.

Best of luck, I will react a couple hours after the news, I expect any immediate spike to fade a bit, or shoot down to put a low... I wonder we bounce up next week and then lower into expirations... I think 1360 will be tested in the next 2-3 sessions.

Edited by arbman, 06 May 2011 - 12:46 AM.

I'm still clutching to my dreams that there is a 5th wave full of bullish orgasms. And that it isn't too far off.. after which it will roll over and never look back. The kind of rally that will shock and awe and you would tremble in your hands at the thought of shorting.. With the usual wave 3 of 3 and dow 30,000 calls coming out.. plus an added bonus of all the commodity bulls and dollar bears also making their presence known. Best thing for bears, IMO, is a great jobs number, where unemployment drops to like 8% and we rally like crazy and Bernanke petitions for the congressional medal of honor. I would sell the gold fillings in my teeth to short the market.

Probably a test of 1360-1362... If 1320 gap is closed tomorrow, the top would be in and any rally should be sold until 1280. I think this is an a-b-c-d-e since 1250 because the waves are too much overlapping and there is no clear third wave... So, it can terminate before making a new high. Wow! I used e-waves...

Edited by arbman, 06 May 2011 - 12:51 AM.

Yes I think it's an ending diagonal, but with 3 strong days of rally that will make it look like it's about to go parabolic. Imagine if we were at 1385 within 3 days from here... how would that look on the chart?

If it goes to 1385, it will feel pretty much like this...

Never say never.

Most of the averages have hit their minimum downside price exhaustion zones using a modified TD Propulsion analysis. [not generally used at highs, but after retraces] But when running the calculations using the traditional formulation for the upside threshold prices this am based on yesterday's lows, and concurrent minimum upside exhaustion zone targets, they showed generally 2.5-3% upside from here, and just above/below peaks already in, depending on the average. Employment data this am might shift the overall environment. While some of the averages have unmet TD D-Wave™ price projections, others have different structures, hence hitting those TDDW upside projections looks increasingly unlikely. Also, TDSeq, TDComb sell signals are now starting to align on all time frames, monthly, weekly, and daily. In fact, another/final move to the upside is needed for the completion of TDSEQ and TDCOMB countdowns on the daily/weekly prints on a couple of the averages. Time wise, fibo day counts suggest we can dither here or slightly lower for the next 3 TD and let some of the averages hit their minimum downside propulsion targets, or have a breakdown on bad news.

Edited by Geomean, 06 May 2011 - 07:10 AM.

APRIL JOBS: +244,000...
[62,000 came from MCDONALD'S]

Surprise, Surprise.
"Job growth surprised on the high side but there are still soft spots. Nonfarm payroll employment in April expanded a healthy 244,000, following a revised 221,000 boost in March and a 235,000 rise in February. The April gain topped analysts' estimate for a 185,000 advance. Also, the February and March revisions were up net 46,000. Private nonfarm payrolls were even stronger, growing 268,000 in April, following a 231,000 rise in March. The consensus forecast called for a 200,000 increase in April. Gains were seen in goods-producing and service-providing sectors."

Edited by Rogerdodger, 06 May 2011 - 08:01 AM.

The distribution in the tick is just too strong, this is really choking the rally at this point, perhaps a consolidation, but if that gap is closed, the upside hopes would be gone.