Instead the break-out seems to have been a failure. And failures are usually punished hard. So let’s put on the bear glasses instead.
The chart NDX chart below is pretty straightforward.
1. we have a trend channel which is confirmed by an almost identical regression channel (gray)
2. Clean breakdown
3. With a test of the channel from below.
4. And finally a follow through of the down move.
In other words the intermediate up trend is broken.
A close up reveals a few more details, which further convinces me the failure break is true.
So let’s look at it from a longer perspective, and now it’s getting interesting.
First a simple chart of DOW, where we look at two things. First the Fibonacci cluster right at the top, which consists of retracements of previous DOWN moves. One might see the retracements as "corrections" to those down moves (that never materialized, but still have influence on the market). Colors should show the way. There is also one simple Fibonacci spiral (or dynamis cycle) that ends this week I am using the blue down move, which is the last ENERGY move, as I see it. (Check out the next OEX chart and you will also see it….)
Next we will be working with OEX. Putting more and more on the chart.
This is simply the regression channel (from the 2003 bottom) with one std. dev., which I have found fits very well to most trends. We also see the 61,8 % retracement of the 2000-2002 down move.
Let’s put on some more stuff!
I find this chart VERY interesting. It shows that the market has a long memory (HOW long, we will see later…). From the 1987 bottom to the 2000 top: The 2003 – 2007 bull is precisely caught between two (green) Fibonacci retracements. Support at the 61.8% retracement and Resistance at the 23,6% (0,618 x 0,618 x 0,618=0,236) retracement.
Now, if you use the exact same energypoints to draw an Andrews Pitchfork (offset 50%), the median line will ALSO act as resistance at X.
And how about the blue pitchfork’s median line!
The other components of the Fibonacci cluster above, is explained to the left in the chart. But in short it consists of previous explained long term resistance and some medium term fibs.
In the next chart we find two fib cycles, one originating from the 1987 high and the other from the 1987 low.
In the red one we use low to low (1987-2002) which is expanded 61,8%
The blue one uses high to high(?) 1987 – 2007, here we can see that there fib ratios marking energy points inside this cycle.
I have many times before showed that the feb 1995 point in time is an energy point, and it shows up again (as a 38,2% retracement).
Sum it all up and it looks like this;
I can’t think of a more perfect set up for a top and I do believe this is a long term top (Why? I will come to that later)
HOWEVER!!!
Once in a while such set up has a “soft spot” where price sneaks through. I also call it a “Black Hole” (like the Center of the Galaxy), which sucks in energy.
In the chart below price “should” have met support.
But it didn’t – evidently….
Here is another one, which might act as a warning that my bullish message might fail again. This chart shows what I was expecting from Nasdaq when I wrote my last bullish post.
I still have it in the back of my head.
So what's the big deal about a bullish and a bearish scenario?
Well, in this posy, we concentrate on time.
The way I see it , the time is up!
This or next week a decision is made on the medium (long?) term direction. Either we start a downmove of importance or we accelerate the upmove.
I think this post gives some pretty good guide lines for the development. B/O above fib resistance in OEX and/or new high in Nasdaq, and prices will accelerate.
a confirmation of the Nasdaq breakout failure (which in my opinion we saw Friday) and we will be speeding downwards. The weekly key reversal is working for us, that's one thing. Another thing is the seasonal pattern.....
21 years of data (blue line is the seasonal index)
Some long term charts:
Here we see the the 1987 and 1990 pre-crash tops at the fib 78,6% and geometrical 75% time retracement.
What is a post without some astro stuff.
Last week Ray Merriman wrote in his free weekly report Here:
"There is one very important geocosmic date this week: Monday, January 22. That is the date when Jupiter will form its first of three waning squares for the year to Uranus, and at the same time, Venus will form an opposition to Saturn. Both of these are considered Level 1 signatures, the strongest correlation (71%) to primary of greater cycles in U.S. stock indices, within 9 trading days in the case of Jupiter-Uranus, and 12 trading days in the case of Venus-Saturn. It is obvious that if a primary or greater cycle is forming now, it will be a crest."
Below are four charts were we have a Jupiter Tranus trine (120 degrees aspect instead of Merriman's 90) they seem to be even more precise than Rays +- 9 trading days.
Spooky right?
I seem to have problems oraganizing the rest, but I hope it makes sense anyway. (The problem is more, I think, is to accept that it has any relevance ...
)In order to understand, or rather put any significance to what's comming next, it’s important to know that W.D Gann based much of his work on planetary movements and information from the Bible and that he was supposed to be a Freemason. He said that all was revealed in the Bible. And that Time is more important than Price.
Pythagoras taught that all was arranged according to numbers. Numbers and Ratios were the key to the universe. Plato was a scholar who perpetuated the works of Pythagoras.
In his book “Geometry of Markets” Bryce Gilmore reveals some symbolic numbers he has (and so have I) seen terminating a trend, as he says, “on many more than three occasions”.
Read the tutorials especially the first part of the elliot chapter.
They are really gems.
Below are some of the important "time numbers" o remember and/or use.
I have used the energy points in time
1929 top/bottom
1930 1932 bottom
1974 bottom
1987 top/bottom
1995 uppcrash start
2000 top
2003 bottom
2007 top
Numbers:
1080 The Lunar number (radius of the moon in miles)
666 the solar number , and the number of the beast
1746 the number of fusion (1080+666) 666=0,382 and 1080 =0,618
1008 (7x144)
As a matter of fact the numbers 7, 12, 144 (=12x12) are seen again and again at important tops and bottoms.
360 or part of it is also important (60/120/180/360)
888
3125 (5*5*5*5*5)
Dow Transportation ath top 1999 May 12 – ath top 2006 May 10. = 7 Years
Calendar days (CD) 2555
Trading days (TD) 1759 (!)
Weeks 365 (and it’s 365 days in a year)
.
Dow industrials ath top Jan 14, 2000 – Jan 17, 2007 =7 years
CD 2561
TD 1760(!)
Weeks 365,7
Note the the similarity in time (trading days) although the tops are not the same
More on Industrials: Oct 10, 2002 to Jan 17 top 2007:
TD 1073 (1080 is the “lunar number”)
CD 1560 (1560x2=3120 3125=5*5*5*5*5)
Compq:
CD 1720 (144*12= 1728)
TD 2503 (2500=50x50)
DAX (Germany):
March 07, 2000 – Jan 17, 2007
TD 2215
CD 1752 (1746 is the number of fusion=1080+666= lunar number+solar number)
(also 1080/1746=0.618 and 666/1746=0.382)
Weeks 359,3 (360 the full circle 360 degrees)
Average of DOW+SPX CDs =2525 days (2520=7x360),
2520x2=5040 =the combined radii of the moon and Earth.
Also see OEXinfo below.
And why is that important?
See below
why is this picture important?
Check out point 3 how you multiply to get 5040!
Perhaps better explained here - or a combination.
info on 1080...1008
More time...
OEX :
Bottom 1987 – top 2007 = 1005,3 weeks (1008 = 7x144)
(1008*5=5040=the combined radii of the moon and Earth)
Bottom 1932 – top 2007 = 888 months
Long info on Masonic symbolism and the Great Seal of America (as seen on the dollar bill)
http://www.masoncode... Great Seal.htm.
Short version:
"The Number of Fusion
1746 is an extremely important symbol of harmony for esoteric initiates, as it represents the fusion of the solar number 666 and the lunar number 1080 (5). On the Great Seal we find both components of this number united, because 'E Pluribus' has a value of 666 and 'Novus' 1080. ......
The Roman numerals of the date MDCCLXXVI also generate the solar number 666. This comes about through a pattern of three pairs: MDCCLXXVI - the first red pair giving 600, the second 60 and the last 6. The intentionality of this is further indicated by the fact that the remaining numbers - MCX - give us, in a regular pattern, 1110. This is a particularly important number in gematria and signifies harmony and completion. We can also see that 666 and 1110 lie in a 3:5 ratio and therefore can signify two sides of a 3-4-5 right-angled triangle. What is the length of the missing side? It is 888 - the number of the Gnostic IhsouV - the stone which the builders disallowed (i Peter 2, 7).
Christian enthusiasts, ignorant of cabalistic numerology, invariably interpret the number 666 to signify the devil. This is a mistaken assumption in many respects and shows a disregard of St John's injunction that the 'number of the beast' was counted only 'for him that hath understanding'. The cabalist with understanding knows that 666 refers as much to the 'Beast' as it does to Jesus Christ. The reason for this is that the words John used were, Kai o ariqmoV autou CxV` - 'And the number of his name is 666'. ...
It is also true that 666, as an emblem of the creative solar power in the cosmos, only becomes destructive when it is not balanced by its feminine counterpart - in this case it leads to authoritarianism and tyranny. "
Ok
That's 666
Let's look at OEX again
What we see, is that 666 has since Dec 18 (23TD's ago) been attacked 9(!) times. 4 times stopped at 665,95 one time at 665.90 and what looked like a new high was on Jan 16 at 666.03 (wow - that's what I call precision).
We we finally got things together and made a run for 666 and decisivly closed above it - the Beast took action and pushed the index just as decisivley back below.
And here we are.........
Check the lower trendline and previous low!
My thinking, is that the OEX is the clue to what will happen next.
They are thaught not to see, I guess...
