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Big Mac Attack

Started by diogenes227 , Nov 12 2009 02:57 PM

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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 12 November 2009 - 02:57 PM

Back on October 28th in the Swing Waves McClellan above, I posted:

" ...I'd like to suggest if this is a typical McClellan cycle, we should bounce any minute, decline again in a week or so from when that bounce begins to either retest the lows or put in a low above a low with ideally the Oscillator putting in a divergence, rally again for another week or so, decline again in another divergent low above a low -- into what is commonly known in McClellan-land as a "buy spike"; and thus form a complex bottom in the Oscillator, confirmed by an up turn in the Summation index and have a strong market rally from that point until probably sometime in January or so. You know -- "the Santa Claus rally.""

We bounced on the October 29th ("any minute" :)) , dropped hard again into the 29th, and turned up Nov. 2nd to put in the first low above a low on the NYMO (three days into the cycle instead of five or so :huh:), and we have rallied ever since until today. We are now declining into the third week of what is so far the typical McClellan cycle referenced above.

In other words, this decline is right on time. :cheer:

Granted this is one-day's retrospect, but note the VIX yesterday on the chart below and the CCI and the "ledge" on the NYSI (as in "ledges are made to fall off of"). They all hinted at today's drop (to say nothing of the fact the SPX, as of yesterday, was up 8 days in a row -- it wasn't going to go up forever!).

This decline creates a whipsaw on the NYSI (giving a sell today unless the market rallies hard into the close), but as long as the bears don't drive the market below the late-October NYMO lows, this will be a buying opportunity, and probably a big one.

That's just my opinion. As comedian Dennis Miller used to say at the end of his rants: "that's just my opinion, I could be wrong." He certainly has been a lot in the last few years. :)

Good trading to everyone. B)

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p09728258834&a=183294212&r=4204.png

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."

#2 diogenes227

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Posted 30 November 2009 - 08:28 PM

SPX (et. al.) up. NYMO up. CCI up from oversold. Fifty moving average tested. VIX down. Dubai or no to Dubai done. NYSI down (but it lags). Can we get a bullish swing from here? Long with tight intraday stop. Good trading to everyone. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."

#3 diogenes227

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Posted 03 December 2009 - 05:31 PM

Posted today on Fearless Forecasters.

Big Mac on FF

NYMO down.
NYSI still stuck in its ledge.
NASI down.
VIX up.
CCI up.
Price reversal day to the upside.

Can we get a follow through to the downside in the indexes?

Long TZA with a tight stop.

Good trading to everyone. :)

http://stockcharts.c...1497&r=3599.png

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."

#4 diogenes227

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Posted 04 December 2009 - 09:49 AM

Stopped out of TZA on the open, and reversed into TNA. Lost most of the profits from previous swing. :cry: That's what I get for putting on a trade against a rising NYSI, regardless of how good it looks on other indicators. That was flat out a mistake. :cry2: If I'd wanted to take profits, I should only have gone to cash and waited for a pullback or further firming (like today). Oh, well... Good trading to everyone. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."

#5 diogenes227

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Posted 04 December 2009 - 11:40 AM

Stopped out of TNA at breakeven, after being up more than 3 percent. Not a good day. :huh:

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."

#6 diogenes227

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Posted 04 December 2009 - 04:18 PM

NYMO putting in new low above a low.
Vix down.
Price up.
NYSI rising.

Long again TNA.

:)

http://stockcharts.c...1656&r=9453.png

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."

#7 diogenes227

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 04:52 PM

NYMO turned down today with a high below a high in the chart pattern. NYSI went negative (NASI too). Russell VIX clicked up. CCI dropped from overbought. This is a SELL. Closed out TNA. up 4.8 percent since 12/10 NYSI buy signal. Good trading to everyone. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."

#8 diogenes227

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Posted 23 December 2009 - 03:19 PM

Been busy with the holidays and so have not kept this thread up to date. Sorry. But obviously, since the above SELL was posted there was a buy signal on 12/18 when NYSI turn up again. As anyone following these McClellan threads should know by now, it's that simple -- if the NYSI is up, play the buy side, if it's down respect the sell side. Back on 12-18 one might have been able to say here comes Santa Claus, but he is here now. TNA is up 10 plus percent in the last four trading days. Might be time to give Santa time to slide down the chimney but at the same time radically tighten stops right underneath him. Good trading to everyone and happy holidays! :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."

#9 diogenes227

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Posted 28 December 2009 - 04:31 PM

Got a downturn in the NYMO today, an upturn on the Russell Vix, a down day after five days up in RUT. Took profits on TNA, up 12 percent plus since the 12/18 buy signal. NYSI still on a buy. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."

#10 diogenes227

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Posted 31 December 2009 - 05:27 PM

NYSI gave a sell today. TNA on the NYSI trade up 7.4 percent since the 12/18 buy signal. Nice way to end the year. :cheer:

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."

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