CL & GC

I had time this weekend to work on the weekly CL and GC charts, and it appears they have both found ST bottoms, but have a long way to prove whether an IT low is in.

First with crude, since the US markets are relatively intertwined (energy sector, et al) with the price of crude.  It seems to me that crude could continue moving upward but will find some resistance at the $47-$48 range first, then again at the fib 23.6 level of $54.66 and finally again at the $60 range.

Likewise the gold market seems to have found at least a ST bottom, but again it also appears to have a way to go before is shows an IT bottom is in...  

I see resistance at the fib 23.6 level of $1,252.70, which has already been acheived, so the next resistance would be at the fib 38.2 level of $1,380.90.

On the daily chart, crude gave a buy signal a while back and has room to continue moving upward, though will likely hit resistance soon as it comes up to the zero line on the indicator:

While gold on the daily chart has been in a buy since late last year and as long as the indicator continues to find support at the 100 line, will continue to find upward price movement:

Daily crude's momentum indicator is up against the zero line and a latent TL, so price will likely pause near this price range, OR get rejected... too early to say for sure.

Crude chart link: http://postimg.org/image/y3qnw20gp/

Daily gold's momentum indicator is finding support at the +100 line and with a trippple top of sorts, I suggest price could move upward from here... time will tell.

Gold chart link: http://postimg.org/image/cjvj1v5jt/

The weekly GC and CL charts are both still in uptrends, though GC hit the price DTL and its momentum indicator hit the zero line, so until it can move above both of those, it may move back down a bit or simply consolidate a while.

Link to GC weekly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/9gshap3n5/

CL is also at a place that it needs to decide to continue upward... its momentum indicator came through the -100 level, but needs to break upward through the zero line and price DTL to confirm a new bull market in CL, and I don't think that will happen in the foreseeable future... however, there is a RH&S formation on the weekly chart, which if it plays out, could take the price upward to the ~70 range... we shall see if it can move upward over the next month or so.

Link to CL weekly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/rszn3iwap/

Crude seems to be implying it wants to move higher, at least in the IT... I noted weeks back that there is a potential RH&S formation setting up with a target up in the low 70s/bbl, it is still playing out, but I suspect there will be some pause in price, now that a few TLs are coming into play.  

First there is the DTL which the price has just about hit, then there is the neckline of the RH&S, which is just above that, then finally. there is the latent TL on the indicator, and finally another DTL and the zero line on the indicator chart also, not to mention the few fib retracement levels that will act as both magnets and resistance, once there... I don't see 70s for crude on the near-term horizon, but if all plays out, perhaps over the winter months... and as always... time will tell.

Link to crude weekly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/uuyma9owp/

Formerly posted on the FF board: tsharp, on 11 Nov 2016 - 10:47 PM, said:

GC broke major support on both the price TL and momentum TL seven weeks ago, this week was the second failure as price could not even back-test the broken TL, though the momentum line did at least touch.  I don't see support until down at the zero line on the momentum indicator chart and the top of the former price channel line, then perhaps enough bounce to create a right shoulder... but as always... time will tell. 

 

Link to GC Weekly chart:  http://postimg.org/image/92jey5ie1/

 

So gold took another shellacking today and is now near the target I suggested in this earlier post... we may see a bounce down just a bit lower due to price hitting the top of the former price channel line and the momentum indicator hitting the zero line... time will tell.

Gold chart link:  http://postimg.org/image/gj8gie76h/

GC continues its move lower... the upper channel line is down at the ~1160 level...

Gold chart link: http://postimg.org/image/w3gasay8p/

Gold is still nearing the top of the top of the channel top I mentioned last week, so gold could be near a ST bottom, or at the very least a bounce in this range... time will tell.

Gold chart link:  http://postimg.org/image/4rvm4kn2x/

Just a quick update on a possible count and path for gold... 

Gold chart link:  http://postimg.org/image/uqwcp30m1/

Sorry... the c-wave upward to wave-B, should have been five waves, not three waves:  http://postimg.org/image/r8kcsozq1/