I edit I will say this. The one BIG fly in the ointment is upside volume. But, what if we are 75 points higher from here when that gives the go-ahead. Caution is the order of the day.
Edited by Iblayz, 08 July 2016 - 09:09 AM.
Posted 08 July 2016 - 09:04 AM
Edited by Iblayz, 08 July 2016 - 09:09 AM.
Posted 08 July 2016 - 09:22 AM
If you are a long term investor, you should remain in cash until we close above SPX 2120 on a monthly basis. Otherwise you are playing with fire.Until then the monthly trend is down IMO and is not a investor friendly market. I sound like a broken record on this.
If you are a trader, most timeframes are on a buy. We need to get down below 2089 before you can start thinking of a short.
If you are a mean reversion player, you could short here with a STOP below ATH.
All depends on your timeframe and how you manage your STOPS and trade.
If we get a monthly close above 2120, then yes we open the door to a lot of higher targets like 2300, 2400, 2500. Otherwise your targets are nothing more than a technical number at this point, without the monthly tail-wind on your side.
Those who have a itch to buy and hold on the long side should be looking at Silver/Gold, rather than stocks at this point.
Edited by NAV, 08 July 2016 - 09:28 AM.
Posted 08 July 2016 - 09:37 AM
Thanks NAV. My best guess is that many of us who usually lurk here are IT and long term investors.
Getting trader perspectives is still interesting to us, and that is why I listen.
Your comments on the overall market as well as individual group strength are appreciated & I always look forward to them.
Posted 08 July 2016 - 11:06 AM
a monthly close? that is 4 weeks away!
Posted 08 July 2016 - 11:29 AM
a monthly close? that is 4 weeks away!
If you cannot wait for 3 weeks, you are not a long term investor by definition.
Posted 08 July 2016 - 11:46 AM
Posted 08 July 2016 - 12:10 PM
From last Sunday's Weekly Breadth Data review:
"So with the BETS moving back to a "Buy" signal this week with a +70 reading, we're back to being aggressive buyers in the equity markets. One of the little short term problems we have, however, is that we haven't seen the kind of leadership action in the small caps and secondary markets that we usually see when a major price rally is about to get underway. Because of this, we might see a day or two of back and fill just after the Monday holiday before we start seeing a better attempt to break above pattern resistance(s) and into new high territory for many of the major market indices here in the United States. In any event, as long as market internals continue to make higher cumulative highs, it's far better to continue to follow this friendly path of least resistance, while using any pullbacks as accumulation points until proven to the contrary."
For what it's worth...the BETS increased to a +80 on Thursday.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
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Posted 08 July 2016 - 12:54 PM
Sometimes, especially on trending days like today, I get the feeling this market is going to go parabolic like 1999, killing every short, sucking in every sideline dollar, and soaring to heights totally nonsensical (although we're probably at that level already), and then crash from there with so much ferocity that 1932 will look like a single blip on some stock-history sonar, and the bonds... uh, don't even want to think about what happens when that biggest of all bubbles bursts...
Oh, well, just a feeling, and as we all know feelings are usually not worth diddly....
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
Posted 08 July 2016 - 01:22 PM
Posted 08 July 2016 - 01:27 PM
Sometimes, especially on trending days like today, I get the feeling this market is going to go parabolic like 1999, killing every short, sucking in every sideline dollar, and soaring to heights totally nonsensical (although we're probably at that level already), and then crash from there with so much ferocity that 1932 will look like a single blip on some stock-history sonar, and the bonds... uh, don't even want to think about what happens when that biggest of all bubbles bursts...
Oh, well, just a feeling, and as we all know feelings are usually not worth diddly....
Well, on breakout days like today, it might be better to allow others to worry about things like this and just ride the wave as far as it will take you.
With your own personal experience in working with such tools as the McClellan's, you will have more than ample time to prepare for any scenarios that you've outlined here.
BTW...the 1 year platform pattern in which the market is just now breaking out of measures to around 2600 on the SPX give or take 50 points.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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