MAJOR RESISTANCE LEVEL

ADAM: "This week saw something that only happens every few months in ES: We hit my macro target. While I am a level to level day trader, I always include for readers a macro target - the broad level for which we are likely to trend towards. For many weeks since early May, every single day in this newsletter I have made that clear: Its the 5513 level (September contract now) which is resistance of a perfect, 3 month megaphone chart pattern. We hit it after CPI on Wednesday.

I affirmed this on Tuesday before Wednesdays CPI/FOMC, by writing: 5511-5513: First major new all time highs target, resistance of the upper lime green line in the below chart, which forms a massive megaphone pattern that encompasses all the action since February. This is a magnet now. I was positioned long for this as readers know, and we hit 5518 high of day after CPI, and since then, we have been basing out below it.

I wrote yesterday: After yesterdays monster Mode 1 squeeze, we are building out a new structure as expected and the range is generally 5512 to 5483.As long as it holds (with any traps below grabbed quickly) ES can build a base 5483-5512. This would then setup the next leg higher. Today, we spent most the session in this range with a few quick failed breakdowns below 5483 which triggered longs

We are forming a new chart pattern now, right beneath this massive resistance zone for the past couple days."

ASIAN MARKETS Bracing for Chinese data deluge...Chinese stocks, however, remain under pressure. As the yuan fell to a seven-month low on Friday, stocks hit their lowest in nearly two months.



Beijing appears to be getting nervous. China's securities regulator on Sunday said it will step up curbs on short-selling activities, and will tighten supervision of illegal share reductions by listed companies' major shareholders.

In South Korea, meanwhile, a senior presidential official said this weekend that stabilizing prices are laying the conditions for the central bank to cut interest rates.



And in corporate news, Hyundai Motor India on Saturday sought regulatory approval to list on the Mumbai stock market in what could be India's biggest IPO ever.

Key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:
China 'data dump' (May)
Japan machinery orders (April))
South Korea trade (May, revised)

ASIAN MARKETS Bracing for Chinese data deluge...Chinese stocks, however, remain under pressure. As the yuan fell to a seven-month low on Friday, stocks hit their lowest in nearly two months.



Beijing appears to be getting nervous. China's securities regulator on Sunday said it will step up curbs on short-selling activities, and will tighten supervision of illegal share reductions by listed companies' major shareholders.

In South Korea, meanwhile, a senior presidential official said this weekend that stabilizing prices are laying the conditions for the central bank to cut interest rates.



And in corporate news, Hyundai Motor India on Saturday sought regulatory approval to list on the Mumbai stock market in what could be India's biggest IPO ever.

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) posted at 8:52 AM on Sun, Jun 16, 2024:
Key Events This Week:

1. May Retail Sales data - Tuesday

2. Stock Market Closed, Juneteenth - Wednesday

3. June Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday

4. S&P US Manufacturing/Services PMI data - Friday

5. May Existing Homes Sales data - Friday

6. A total of 10 Fed
(https://x.com/Kobeis...1039630582?s=03)

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) posted at 3:44 PM on Sun, Jun 16, 2024:
BREAKING: US multifamily real estate prices are now down 18% since their 2022 high.

After multifamily properties value boomed in 2021 and 2022 they are now back to levels seen 3 years ago.

There is now $56 BILLION worth of multifamily buildings in financial trouble much of it https://t.co/mGfceiF9i2
(https://x.com/Kobeis...8846412983?s=03)

I am net SHORT. Last week profitable with good profits from daytrading, NVDA, YEN, AMZN, GOOGL LONGS, AAPL & OTHER PUTS, and losses from SPY & QQQ PUTS and other smaller SHORTS. My FF is a market top below ES 5480-5500

Edited by dTraderB, 16 June 2024 - 05:10 PM.

ES SHORT 5500.5

NQ SHORT 19957

FUNDSTRAT:
"How FOMC Sets Up 'Very Positive Surprise' for Equities
Inflation is falling like a rock. Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee has been pointing this out for quite some time, and the truth of that repeated assertion was even more evident last week. May Core CPI came in at +0.16% MoM, significantly lower than consensus expectations of +0.28%, and half of what we saw for this figure in April. On Thursday, May Core PPI came in at zero, versus Street forecasts of +0.26%. This weeks data shows that inflations trajectory in May cooled at a faster pace than the stepdown seen in April, Lee wrote.

These downside inflation reads helped boost the markets this week, with the S&P 500 setting all-time record-high closes on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, before settling slightly on Friday. (The Nasdaq set new all-time record-high closes every day this week.) Yet, as Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton observed, Everybody looks at the broader indices ripping every day and thinks everythings great. Thats true if you are over-concentrated in Technology. Very few investors are truly diversified and invested across all these different sectors, but if you are, right now youre failing to keep pace with the little grandma who just owns
QQQ +0.55%
.

That was not surprising to Lee, who noted that both markets and the Fed are expressing some level of skepticism that this drop in inflationary pressures in May is genuine. Wednesdays Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting was somewhat hawkish. It seems the Fed largely ignored the May CPI report, said Lee, which is curious given the Feds repeated avowals of data dependence. (When asked whether FOMC participants had changed their projections after the May CPI release, Fed Chair Jerome Powell responded, Some people do, some people dont. Most people dont.)

Regardless, Lee remains constructive. In fact, the FOMCs somewhat hawkish stance this week sets up for a very positive surprise for equities heading into May PCE [released at the end of June] and June CPI [mid-July], he asserted. When also considering June seasonality and historical trends, Lee sees the possibility of the S&P 500 hitting 5,500 by the end of the month."

"Prepare NOW For A Potentially Huge Storm Ahead"
https://stockcharts....tially-435.html