Yield Curves 15-Month Lag - Chart In Focus

Yield Curves 15-Month Lag - Chart In Focus

This chart shows that the 2-year yield knows ahead of the Fed what the Fed is going to do. We all get into problems when the FOMC members with their expensive economics degrees think that they know better than the bond market. When they keep rates too low, meaning lower than what the 2-year yield says, then they help to fuel bubbles in both the stock market and the economy. And when they keep the Fed Funds target rate too high, like they are doing now, they overdo the braking force, leading to big problems.

But as far as I know, none of the FOMC members reads this Chart In Focus series, and they probably would not accept that suggestion from me anyway. People generally do not like to be told that someone (or something) else could do a better job they they do. So we will just have to live with having a Fed which is almost always behind the power curve, and which is going to keep stepping on the gas or the brakes at the wrong time.

Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report
https://www.mcoscill...es_15-month_lag

The market is in extremely ovebought conditions due to the last two-week relentless hype aimed for profiting from the quadruple OpEx.  This is likely an ST/IT top here .......................

Edited by redfoliage2, 21 June 2024 - 09:23 AM.

The market is in extremely ovebought conditions due to the last two-week relentless hype aimed for profiting from the quadruple OpEx.  This is likely an ST/IT top here .......................

The high flyers likely to get punished in a correction ..........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 21 June 2024 - 09:31 AM.

 

The market is in extremely ovebought conditions due to the last two-week relentless hype aimed for profiting from the quadruple OpEx.  This is likely an ST/IT top here .......................

The high flyers likely to get punished in a correction ..........................

 

BTW, VIX is also indicating a stock market top here as it has formed a double bottom and then made a breakout from its daily down trendline.  We are likely to see higher volatility next week as lots of portfolios going into quarterly rebalancing .........................................

Edited by redfoliage2, 21 June 2024 - 10:29 AM.

At this juncture the market is still in extremely over-bought conditions and I see more pullback ahead, intra-day bounces are likely to be sold .........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 24 June 2024 - 12:00 PM.

 

 

The market is in extremely ovebought conditions due to the last two-week relentless hype aimed for profiting from the quadruple OpEx.  This is likely an ST/IT top here .......................

The high flyers likely to get punished in a correction ..........................

 

BTW, VIX is also indicating a stock market top here as it has formed a double bottom and then made a breakout from its daily down trendline.  We are likely to see higher volatility next week as lots of portfolios going into quarterly rebalancing .........................................

 

BTW, SPX looks going to close the day in red .........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 24 June 2024 - 12:06 PM.

At this juncture the market is still in extremely over-bought conditions and I see more pullback ahead, intra-day bounces are likely to be sold .........................

Here I bet SPX is to make a lower low tomorrow .......................

Edited by redfoliage2, 24 June 2024 - 12:23 PM.

 

At this juncture the market is still in extremely over-bought conditions and I see more pullback ahead, intra-day bounces are likely to be sold .........................

I bet SPX is to make a lower low tomorrow .......................

 

I'd not rule out that some kind of a correction has started ..........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 24 June 2024 - 12:25 PM.

 

At this juncture the market is still in extremely over-bought conditions and I see more pullback ahead, intra-day bounces are likely to be sold .........................

Here I bet SPX is to make a lower low tomorrow .......................

 

 

 

 

 

The market is in extremely ovebought conditions due to the last two-week relentless hype aimed for profiting from the quadruple OpEx.  This is likely an ST/IT top here .......................

The high flyers likely to get punished in a correction ..........................

 

BTW, VIX is also indicating a stock market top here as it has formed a double bottom and then made a breakout from its daily down trendline.  We are likely to see higher volatility next week as lots of portfolios going into quarterly rebalancing .........................................

 

BTW, SPX looks going to close the day in red .........................

 

We are likely to see SPX to test its 10 DMA at 5438 as soon as tomorrow ...........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 24 June 2024 - 01:11 PM.

 

 

At this juncture the market is still in extremely over-bought conditions and I see more pullback ahead, intra-day bounces are likely to be sold .........................

I bet SPX is to make a lower low tomorrow .......................

 

I'd not rule out that some kind of a correction has started ..........................

 

as the high flyers are getting punished ..........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 24 June 2024 - 01:18 PM.