Bullish seasonality into Friday JOBS REPORT

"We are now heading into July, and July 1st is the most bullish day of the year, green *90% of years* over the last 20 years. Can it play out this year?" -- ADAM MANCINI

In defensive mode most of last week, preserving gains, net short to end June, with a small weekly profit. I will increase SHORTS on rallies this week - close longs, open new shorts. BEST RETURNS SMCI PUTS !
--
SENTIMENT TRADER
Amidst all the angst comes the Summer Rally Period
Key points:

The stock market has shown a long-term tendency to perform less well during the summer months of June/July/August than during the rest of the year
Results can and do vary significantly from year to year
However, one summer month period tends to shine (and makes the rest of the summer look that much worse by comparison)
The S&P 500 during June, July, and August

The chart below displays the Annual Seasonal Trend for the S&P 500 Index. Note that the "average" performance during the June/July/August period is a sideways affair.


"Amidst all the angst comes the Summer Rally Period
Key points:

The stock market has shown a long-term tendency to perform less well during the summer months of June/July/August than during the rest of the year
Results can and do vary significantly from year to year
However, one summer month period tends to shine (and makes the rest of the summer look that much worse by comparison)
The S&P 500 during June, July, and August

The chart below displays the Annual Seasonal Trend for the S&P 500 Index. Note that the "average" performance during the June/July/August period is a sideways affair.

https://mailchi.mp/0...er-rally-period

Am long HSI & A50
"New quarter, same old China PMIs"
Key developments that could provide more direction to ASIAN markets on Tuesday:
Manufacturing PMIs from across Asia, including China (June)
Indonesia inflation (June)
Australia retail sales (May)

7/1 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
7/1 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI
7/2 9:30 AM ET: Powell, Lagarde, Campos Neto Speak in Sintra
7/2 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job Openings
7/3 8:30 AM ET: May Trade Balance
7/3 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Services PMI
7/3 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 AM ET: May F Durable Goods Orders
7/3 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Meeting Minutes
7/5 8:30 AM ET: Jun Jobs Report

Nq long 19911.5

Es long 5523

Nq long 19911.5

Closed nq 19978.5

Nq long 19911.5

"H2 kicks off, markets bet on French gridlock
An event-packed but shortened week stateside kicks off the second half of 2024, with European markets rallying on Monday as the first round of French assembly elections points to a hung parliament and policy gridlock...
....Otherwise, the U.S. week is broken up by the Independence Day holiday on Thursday but is packed with big labor market data - some of which is frontloaded a day early because of the holiday. The JOLTs job openings release is due on Tuesday, for example, and the weekly jobless report on Wednesday - but the national payrolls report will be on Friday as usual.

Elsewhere, the UK holds its general election while the U.S. is away on Thursday.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
US June manufacturing surveys from ISM and S&P Global
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams speaks; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks at ECB's annual forum in Sintra, Portugal
US Treasury sells 3-, 6-month bills

Michael McKee (@mckonomy) posted at 7:22 AM on Mon, Jul 01, 2024:

At 10:00 am EDT today, everyone in Washington will turn blue, as they hold their breath waiting for #Scotus decision.

(https://x.com/mckono...0923031966?s=03)

YEN SHORT 161.355
HOLDING 6 SHORT

WILL ADD ABOVE 161.915