Most likely..
AI bubble bigger than DIT COM?
Started by
dTraderB
, Jul 07 2024 05:00 PM
191 replies to this topic
#2
dTraderB
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Posted 07 July 2024 - 05:03 PM
Key developments that could provide more direction to ASIAN markets on Monday:
Japan wage growth (May)
Japan current account (May)
France general election
Japan wage growth (May)
Japan current account (May)
France general election
#3
pdx5
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I want return OF my money more than return ON my money
Posted 07 July 2024 - 05:27 PM
My in-laws $45k investment in AI stock just a few years ago is now worth half million!
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule
#4
dTraderB
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Posted 07 July 2024 - 05:32 PM
Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) posted at 4:19 PM on Sun, Jul 07, 2024:
As a 100% technicals trader, my job is to be a pro institutional money follower. Not my job to have opinions on price or argue with it (price doesnt care). Job is to find where & how institutions will engage (they use a set bag of tricks), then blindly follow & manage risk. 0 ego
(https://x.com/AdamMa...3418151984?s=03)
As a 100% technicals trader, my job is to be a pro institutional money follower. Not my job to have opinions on price or argue with it (price doesnt care). Job is to find where & how institutions will engage (they use a set bag of tricks), then blindly follow & manage risk. 0 ego
(https://x.com/AdamMa...3418151984?s=03)
#5
dTraderB
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Posted 07 July 2024 - 05:40 PM
Our NVDA holding has been good & we add on pullbacks, and sell calls on spikes up.
My in-laws $45k investment in AI stock just a few years ago is now worth half million!
#6
dTraderB
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Posted 07 July 2024 - 05:42 PM
This is moving up quickly, ST TOP soon, pullback, maybe early this week -- near 200 level
https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/
https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/
#7
dTraderB
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Posted 07 July 2024 - 06:04 PM
FUNDSTRAT:
Seasonality, Softening Jobs Data, and the Stock Market
The S&P 500 once again set a new all-time high close last Tuesday, and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notched substantial weekly gains to open the first half of the year. On the macroeconomic front, arguably the most significant data of the holiday-shortened trading week was released on Friday, with the U.S jobs report. Perhaps more important than the June numbers, however, were revisions to May and April numbers that translate into 111,000 fewer new jobs in the last two months than previously calculated. That is a big number, said Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee, and to us it shows that the labor market is slowing.
In the view of Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton, we remain in a bad news is good news regime for investors. In that light, evidence of a softening labor market could be a positive for stocks. In addition to Fridays jobs report, this week we saw continuing unemployment claims hit multi-year highs.
The rally to SPX-5650-5750 seems to be underway, as large-cap Technology continues to press higher, Newton told us this week, and his cycle composite suggests further gains are possible heading into mid-July. So does seasonality: The first two weeks of July are typically strong, and a look at past election years suggests that a long bias could be appropriate until August.
The minutes from the June 12, 2024 meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee were also released last week. They show that although FOMC members continue require still more evidence of tanking inflation, a number of officials also appear concerned that years of elevated rates could be taking its toll on the economy, stressing that the Fed needs to be ready to respond quickly to any unexpected economic weakness. Such sentiments are consistent with remarks made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week at the annual forum hosted by the European Central Bank. Powell noted that the respective risks of cutting too early (risking a resurgence of inflation) or cutting too late (thus weakening the economy) had become more balanced.
Newton pointed out that we seem to be seeing a sector rotation into Industrials, Materials and Consumer Discretionary. From a technical standpoint, he noted that interestingly, momentum has been positively diverging on weekly Summation index charts [a widely used gauge of market breadth]. McClellans Summation index has fallen to new lows for the year, but momentum gauges like MACD have held up in much better shape and are on the verge of making a bullish crossover of the signal line. Although uncertainty remains on this matter, Newton suggested that this very well might coincide with the start of a bounce in market breadth.
Seasonality, Softening Jobs Data, and the Stock Market
The S&P 500 once again set a new all-time high close last Tuesday, and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notched substantial weekly gains to open the first half of the year. On the macroeconomic front, arguably the most significant data of the holiday-shortened trading week was released on Friday, with the U.S jobs report. Perhaps more important than the June numbers, however, were revisions to May and April numbers that translate into 111,000 fewer new jobs in the last two months than previously calculated. That is a big number, said Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee, and to us it shows that the labor market is slowing.
In the view of Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton, we remain in a bad news is good news regime for investors. In that light, evidence of a softening labor market could be a positive for stocks. In addition to Fridays jobs report, this week we saw continuing unemployment claims hit multi-year highs.
The rally to SPX-5650-5750 seems to be underway, as large-cap Technology continues to press higher, Newton told us this week, and his cycle composite suggests further gains are possible heading into mid-July. So does seasonality: The first two weeks of July are typically strong, and a look at past election years suggests that a long bias could be appropriate until August.
The minutes from the June 12, 2024 meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee were also released last week. They show that although FOMC members continue require still more evidence of tanking inflation, a number of officials also appear concerned that years of elevated rates could be taking its toll on the economy, stressing that the Fed needs to be ready to respond quickly to any unexpected economic weakness. Such sentiments are consistent with remarks made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week at the annual forum hosted by the European Central Bank. Powell noted that the respective risks of cutting too early (risking a resurgence of inflation) or cutting too late (thus weakening the economy) had become more balanced.
Newton pointed out that we seem to be seeing a sector rotation into Industrials, Materials and Consumer Discretionary. From a technical standpoint, he noted that interestingly, momentum has been positively diverging on weekly Summation index charts [a widely used gauge of market breadth]. McClellans Summation index has fallen to new lows for the year, but momentum gauges like MACD have held up in much better shape and are on the verge of making a bullish crossover of the signal line. Although uncertainty remains on this matter, Newton suggested that this very well might coincide with the start of a bounce in market breadth.
#8
qqqqtrdr
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Posted 07 July 2024 - 07:03 PM
What scares me is the realization that it is not as fast growing as we thought. Just like electric cars, goes parabolic and sells off. The thing is many S&P500 companies have an AI strategy. Not all these companies who are developing AI will be winners.
#9
dTraderB
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Posted 08 July 2024 - 06:41 AM
"Stocks surfing new highs, French surprise
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
US June employment trends, May consumer credit
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Jonathan Haskel speaks
US Treasury auctions 3-, 6-month billsNY Fed inflation expectations survey, U.S. March employment trends
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
US June employment trends, May consumer credit
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Jonathan Haskel speaks
US Treasury auctions 3-, 6-month billsNY Fed inflation expectations survey, U.S. March employment trends
#10
dTraderB
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Posted 08 July 2024 - 06:42 AM
Close 1 es long 5622.5
Close 1 nq long 20626.25
Net short 1 eaxh es, nq
Close 1 nq long 20626.25
Net short 1 eaxh es, nq
