Risk Windows for the Week of 15 July & Another One Bites the Dust

The risk windows for this coming week are Tuesday July 16th possibly extending from near the close on Monday the 15th and into the open on Wednesday the 17th and Friday July 19th with the Tuesday risk window having a much stronger signal.

Last week the Tuesday the 9th risk window tagged the low for the week and the Friday the 12th risk window tagged some sort of high, the importance of which will be determined by action this coming Monday.

Yet another one of my short term EWave counts bit the dust this past week, surprise, surprise, when the DJIA ran up to the recent high.  Unflummoxed, I put pen to paper, digitally speaking, and came up with the beauty below, which like its predecessor probably only has a half life of a week or so before it too reaches critical mass and blows up, but hey, as I always say, if you can't predict accurately, at least predict often.  I'm still in the squalid bear camp assuming my big "B" is finishing either this past Friday or very early this coming week if the "5" extends.  

One of the many flies in the ointment of my count above is Jerome.  He speaks again this coming Monday and given Trump threats and normal human survival instincts, Powell's probably going to do a bit more pumping when he heads once again to the podium, not intentionally trying to help out the POTUS mind you, but if the other guy says he's going to fire you, then, well, you can't blame a guy for a few subtle acts of self-preservation none of which would be good for a bearish count like mine above.

Regards,

Douglas

A couple of weeks ago I published the DJIA daily plot below with the green triangle focus that I thought might forecast a turn.  Given the action of the last week or so, it's possible that the triangle in blue based on the closing prices is the one which I should have been watching instead of the triangle in green based on the daily high and low prices.  Oh well, I guess I won't know if the green one is telling me anything too until July 29th.  Technical analysis is just amazing with 20-20 hindsight.

Regards,

Douglas

Heck of a rally today.  Some possible DJIA upside targets are shown below.  First a channel which the DJIA will hit at about 43,000 at the current rate of ascent.  The second target comes from a series of equal measured moves using the distance between the 2009 low to the previous high.  This distance has hit several lows and highs.  The next one would be at almost 44,000.  

Regards,

Douglas