Possible 10% Crash on August 19th & September 3?

I'm seeing something in my charts I have never seen before!

I used Gann, Elliott Wave, FIB and Astrology to come to my possible conclusion: Two possible ~10% crashes, one on August 19th and one on Sept 3rd.

Here is a link to my BLOG with chart.

The move off the August 5 low is almost parabolic. You don't see these kinds of moves in bull markets, bear markets, yes.

I don't see this market recovering to new highs this year or even next. I see a hard landing by around November 18 and a possible retest around Dec 24, but no more ~10% daily crashes likely, just an insidious bear market.

Just my 2 cents for what it's worth!

Have fun guys

blu

Just my 2 cents for what it's worth!

Always worth a good laugh.

Piggybacking Merriman again ?

Thanks for sharing your work, Blu.  Given that NDX has moved 4200 points in 10 trading days, anything is possible.  Your ewave count looks plausible.

(Too bad that those who don't contribute anything are the first to ridicule and mock the work of others).

Edited by beta, 18 August 2024 - 10:37 AM.

sorry Blu, but your scenario is as probable as me becoming a priest. No chance from my point of view. However every opinion about the stock market's moves is respectable. 

Edited by andr99, 18 August 2024 - 11:24 AM.

https://tinyurl.com/27ztl8d4

Normally I would agree that its out there but no one should be making jokes considering what happened just a couple weeks ago.  Japan was down -13% and no one had a clue it was coming.  The market with a super high 23 times p/e, thinking it will move +1% every day as call options are indicating and although bullishness isn't as high, it always takes time to catch up so there is always a possibility we could wake up to a massive down day.  I would suggest to not being to cynical on anyone's opinions at this point as we are also entering the most volatile period of the market, September and October.  I still remember the 1987 crash like it was yesterday btw and back then no one saw it coming and everyone ignored me to take profits. 

While every time is different, the Japan crash was preceded by two weeks of weakness and a very bad Friday before and the 1987 crash was preceded by a very bad week. Even though the crash day seemingly comes out of nowhere it is usually preceded by a short period or more of weakness. That setup does not currently exist. It could in short order but for now it doesn't.

if you look at the dax, you see that it's just a brief correction that we saw and the way is free to new all time highs. Europe and USA are in synch now. 

However, whatever the stock market path one has got in his mind, it's always respectable even when it is unprobable and we have said it. Very true

by the way that when a vertical drop comes, usually no one expects it. Or almost no one and for sure not me in recent times. Honestly speaking. 

While every time is different, the Japan crash was preceded by two weeks of weakness and a very bad Friday before and the 1987 crash was preceded by a very bad week. Even though the crash day seemingly comes out of nowhere it is usually preceded by a short period or more of weakness. That setup does not currently exist. It could in short order but for now it doesn't.

Just like the 87 crash, the market was weaker before hand.  All I'm saying is no one should mock anyone on a prediction because at this stage and the time period we are entering anything is possible.  Since the supposed credit spread has gone away the fx market in my view is in chaos right now and needs to be straitened out also so there are possible shocks sitting out there. 

There is no mocking here. I'm merely pointing out that if we are to see crash like days, there is usually a period of weakness immediately before what culminates with a crash. The setup for a crash day currently does not exist. Doesn't completely rule it out of course but more likely another crash day will most likely need a new setup. Personally  I'm in the camp of reasonably large decline starting from sometime in September ending by the 2nd week of October. Next couple of weeks don't see much more than a 100 point S&P decline, but of course I could be completely wrong.  

 

While every time is different, the Japan crash was preceded by two weeks of weakness and a very bad Friday before and the 1987 crash was preceded by a very bad week. Even though the crash day seemingly comes out of nowhere it is usually preceded by a short period or more of weakness. That setup does not currently exist. It could in short order but for now it doesn't.

Just like the 87 crash, the market was weaker before hand.  All I'm saying is no one should mock anyone on a prediction because at this stage and the time period we are entering anything is possible.  Since the supposed credit spread has gone away the fx market in my view is in chaos right now and needs to be straitened out also so there are possible shocks sitting out there. 

 

Edited by Spectacular Bid, 19 August 2024 - 10:39 AM.