The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) posted at 11:59 PM on Sun, Sep 15, 2024:
The difference between the 2-year Treasury yield and the Fed interest rates dropped to -1.69%, the most in at least 35 years.
This gap is now even larger than in 2008 and in 1989, a few months before the recession began.
The 2-year Treasury yield is considered a leading indicator for the next Feds interest rate moves.
In other words, the bond market expects that the Fed will be cutting rates at a rapid pace in the coming months.
This has been driven by increasing evidence of the deteriorating labor market and many indicators suggesting this trend will continue.
Is the Fed behind the curve?
--'
This is absolutely incredible:
The S&P 500 has seen FOUR market cap swings of $2 trillion or more since August 1st.
In fact, since August 1st, these 4 swings have moved a total of $12.7 TRILLION in market cap.
Last week, the index added $1.8 trillion, more than the total https://t.co/n4DIUfLkVl
(https://x.com/Kobeis...8662504620?s=03)
IS THE FED BEHIND THE CURVE?
Started by
dTraderB
, Sep 15 2024 10:14 PM
94 replies to this topic
#2
dTraderB
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Posted 15 September 2024 - 10:15 PM
The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) posted at 5:59 PM on Sun, Sep 15, 2024:
Key Events This Week:
1. August Retail Sales data - Tuesday
2. August Building Permits data - Wednesday
3. Fed Interest Rate Decision - Wednesday
4. Fed Press Conference - Wednesday
5. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday
6. August Existing Home Sales data - Thursday
(https://x.com/Kobeis...7014616516?s=03)
Key Events This Week:
1. August Retail Sales data - Tuesday
2. August Building Permits data - Wednesday
3. Fed Interest Rate Decision - Wednesday
4. Fed Press Conference - Wednesday
5. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday
6. August Existing Home Sales data - Thursday
(https://x.com/Kobeis...7014616516?s=03)
#3
dTraderB
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Posted 15 September 2024 - 10:25 PM
King of the Charts (@ChartingProdigy) posted at 7:20 AM on Sun, Sep 15, 2024:
.
#NASDAQ100 Topped July 10, 2024
At the bursting of the tech bubble $NDX topped & dropped over 40% in 2 months. It got a bear market rally, then continued to drop. Just over 1 year later it was down 72.40%. Then 2 years 7 months later it bottomed after dropping 83.65%
$QQQ https://t.co/Y85pce6FRj
.
#NASDAQ100 Topped July 10, 2024
At the bursting of the tech bubble $NDX topped & dropped over 40% in 2 months. It got a bear market rally, then continued to drop. Just over 1 year later it was down 72.40%. Then 2 years 7 months later it bottomed after dropping 83.65%
$QQQ https://t.co/Y85pce6FRj
#4
dTraderB
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Posted 15 September 2024 - 10:26 PM
King of the Charts (@ChartingProdigy) posted at 11:52 PM on Sun, Sep 15, 2024:
.
SPX Top
By the 1st rate cut in 2001, S&P 500 already topped. $SPX got a bounce w/ the 1st cut for 19 days. Then selling resumed. In 2007, $SPY topped 17 days after the cut (link). In both cases, the #FOMC cut only produced a bounce followed by a CRASH
https://t.co/HhJND8n3qQ https://t.co/rEAiamqpv5
.
SPX Top
By the 1st rate cut in 2001, S&P 500 already topped. $SPX got a bounce w/ the 1st cut for 19 days. Then selling resumed. In 2007, $SPY topped 17 days after the cut (link). In both cases, the #FOMC cut only produced a bounce followed by a CRASH
https://t.co/HhJND8n3qQ https://t.co/rEAiamqpv5
King of the Charts (@ChartingProdigy) posted at 7:20 AM on Sun, Sep 15, 2024:
.
#NASDAQ100 Topped July 10, 2024
At the bursting of the tech bubble $NDX topped & dropped over 40% in 2 months. It got a bear market rally, then continued to drop. Just over 1 year later it was down 72.40%. Then 2 years 7 months later it bottomed after dropping 83.65%
$QQQ https://t.co/Y85pce6FRj
#5
dTraderB
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Posted 16 September 2024 - 02:40 AM
Es long 5687.5
Net short 1 es, 2 nq
Completed rollover into December ES & NQ contracts.
Net short 1 es, 2 nq
Completed rollover into December ES & NQ contracts.
#6
fib_1618
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Posted 16 September 2024 - 03:38 AM
The difference between the 2-year Treasury yield and the Fed interest rates dropped to -1.69%, the most in at least 35 years.
To provide context...data is only through August 1st:
http://technicalwatc...mbust091624.png
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#7
dTraderB
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Posted 16 September 2024 - 05:33 AM
Nq long 15707
Es long 5687.5
Net short 1 es, 2 nq
Completed rollover into December ES & NQ contracts.
#8
dTraderB
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- Traders-Talk User
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Posted 16 September 2024 - 06:45 AM
Es long 5587.75
Nq long 15707
Es long 5687.5
Net short 1 es, 2 nq
Completed rollover into December ES & NQ contracts.
#9
dTraderB
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- Traders-Talk User
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Posted 16 September 2024 - 08:35 AM
Nq long 19582.5
Es long 5587.75
Nq long 15707
Es long 5687.5
Net short 1 es, 2 nq
Completed rollover into December ES & NQ contracts.
#10
dTraderB
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- Traders-Talk User
- 19,601 posts
Member
Posted 16 September 2024 - 08:35 AM
Es long 5681.25
Nq long 19582.5
Es long 5587.75
Nq long 15707
Es long 5687.5
Net short 1 es, 2 nq
Completed rollover into December ES & NQ contracts.
