Risk Windows for the Week of 4 November & NOT My System

This coming week or so my risk summation system predicts that the days with the highest probability of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday November 4th, Wednesday November 6th and a window stretching from Friday November 8 through Tuesday November 12th.

 

Last week you were better off doing a boolean NOT on my system, basically do the opposite.  As can be seen below in yellow, the most important days last week were the ones not selected by my system shown in red.  My system is probabilistic and sometimes the probability cuts the wrong way, like last week.  Oh well, another week, another chance to get it right.

 

 

Just to add insult to injury the triangle that I posted last week supposedly pointing at what I thought was an important low also turned out to be a dud.  Not my best week. 

 

 

Oh, and surprise, surprise the crash risk window that I noted last week was also a clinker.  Israel was apparently supposed to deliver the black swan but decided to do a wrist slap instead.  No real election October surprise either.  Real bummer for bears.  I suppose it's almost winter, hibernation time for the furry fiends.

 

Regardless,

Douglas

Just for grins and giggles my very short term EWave count is shown below.  I think it has as much chance of being right as seeing a snow ball fight mid-day in Hades, but you got to have a plan, at least until the market hits you in the nose to roughly paraphrase Mike Tyson.  This count assumes a plunge right after the election.   Who said all the bears were dead and buried, although this one has been digging his own grave for a while now.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

I commented in another post that I don’t believe we will know the election results for 3-4 weeks and this could drop the market over 20% in that duration of time. Best to either hedge portfolios, go to cash OR like me, be short the market.

It's not what you don't know that will get you into trouble.  It's what's you know for sure that just ain't so.  - Mark Twain.  I suppose for the unrepentant gambler, the well hedged or the properly stopped it's fine to take a position in front of this election, but for everyone else, fence sitting would seem to me to be the best position for their posterior.  Uncertainty would appear to be the only current certainty that I can count on, and on even that I'm not certain.

 

Regards, 

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 03 November 2024 - 10:15 PM.

Just cause I'm up in the middle of the night because of some broken glass noise that I heard (or dreamed), the following is a DJIA future finviz.com 3min chart EWave fantasy with an overlapping leading diagonal circle 1 and the gap right where it belongs in the 3 of the 3.  So far the circle 4 has missed overlapping the circle 1 by just 3 tiny points, but it's not clear if the circle 4 is finished.  A circle five down soon for the win.

 

 

Regards & sleepy,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 03 November 2024 - 10:58 PM.

Well, the 3 minute plot count above didn't make it till dawn in the UK. The circle four crossed the circle 1 voiding the count. Nothing "bad" happened overnight, so the DJIA futures continue to drift higher.  Should have known trying to do something like that half-asleep was a bad idea.   The good news is that so far at least I haven't found any sign of where the broken glass noise came from so no burglar, not last night anyway.  

 

The count below labelling is consistent with my daily count structure in the second post in this thread which is more bullish short term (still bearish longer term though).  Probably not any more likely to work out, but at least it'll be consistently wrong.

 

  

 

Regards,

Douglas