.. ??
Should I trade this week?
Started by
dTraderB
, Nov 03 2024 05:56 PM
137 replies to this topic
#2
cycletimer
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Posted 03 November 2024 - 06:29 PM
Sure, it with a bearish bias. I’m currently holding a 20% position in $SPX 5700 puts that expire on Friday. The Dow side isn’t done in the short term and I believe we will NOT know final results of the elections until late November-early December. This uncertainty is good for a 20% drop in the indices!
#3
dTraderB
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Posted 03 November 2024 - 06:35 PM
Es short 5754
.. ??
#4
dTraderB
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Posted 03 November 2024 - 06:37 PM
FED 50 pt cut on THURSDAY, with extremely dovish POWELL. Will short that bounce
Sure, it with a bearish bias. Im currently holding a 20% position in $SPX 5700 puts that expire on Friday. The Dow side isnt done in the short term and I believe we will NOT know final results of the elections until late November-early December. This uncertainty is good for a 20% drop in the indices!
#5
dTraderB
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Posted 03 November 2024 - 07:10 PM
High probability 5730 trades next 48hrs.
Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) posted at 10:49 AM on Sat, Nov 02, 2024:
Big Picture View: On Oct 9, #ES_F broke out a perfect 2 week bull flag. This week, it back-tested at 5730. If an election rally is ahead, it has to start there
Plan Next Week: As long as 5730 keeps hold; 5802, 5828, 5878 next. Dip there, then ATHs 5970. 5730 fails, short to 5650
https://t.co/bSyJ6axHJk
(https://x.com/AdamMa...3846652339?s=03)
Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) posted at 10:49 AM on Sat, Nov 02, 2024:
Big Picture View: On Oct 9, #ES_F broke out a perfect 2 week bull flag. This week, it back-tested at 5730. If an election rally is ahead, it has to start there
Plan Next Week: As long as 5730 keeps hold; 5802, 5828, 5878 next. Dip there, then ATHs 5970. 5730 fails, short to 5650
https://t.co/bSyJ6axHJk
(https://x.com/AdamMa...3846652339?s=03)
#7
dTraderB
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Posted 04 November 2024 - 06:21 AM
FUNDSTRAT:
What Election Aftermath Could Bring for Stocks
A month ago, Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee warned that October could be iffy for stock investors, and although he was surprised by the strong advances we saw during the month, the S&P 500 ultimately ended down about 1% for the month. Thats not to say that this is the start of a major decline, however. Lee still sees stocks as having solid fundamentals. For one thing, real revenue growth, adjusted for inflation, is surging, he told clients during a special election installment of his monthly Market Update webinar.
However, he continues to see the possibility of near-term volatility and challenging conditions for the month of November, due to some recently emerging headwinds. One of those stems from the expectation that the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election could extend well past November 5, Election Day. A survey of our clients during the webinar showed that roughly 75% of them believe that the results will only be made clear between mid-November and the end of the year. VIX futures trading suggests that the market agrees. The VIX term structure is currently inverted and is staying inverted past election day, implying that markets expect larger volatility moves near-term. This makes sense to Lee: Intuitively, we can imagine equity markets would be on hold until after this election decision is made.
Fundstrat Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton is also wary of what might happen to markets in November. This week, he told us that near-term equity trends look fragile. This assessment is based in part on recent breadth and momentum readings, which he told us at our weekly research huddle have gotten increasingly worse in the last couple weeks. Breadth is now abysmal, he said, noting that the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving averages is now down at a very low level of 36%. Thats notable because in recent history, when weve gotten to those levels, like back in September, back in August, back in June and April, the market has shown pretty big corrections into that time.
My thinking is that November is going to be a down month, Newton said. On an intermediate term, however, the market still looks healthy to him. The overall level of the percentage of stocks that are within 20% of their 52 week highs is still at 84% so thats still very, very good.
What Election Aftermath Could Bring for Stocks
A month ago, Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee warned that October could be iffy for stock investors, and although he was surprised by the strong advances we saw during the month, the S&P 500 ultimately ended down about 1% for the month. Thats not to say that this is the start of a major decline, however. Lee still sees stocks as having solid fundamentals. For one thing, real revenue growth, adjusted for inflation, is surging, he told clients during a special election installment of his monthly Market Update webinar.
However, he continues to see the possibility of near-term volatility and challenging conditions for the month of November, due to some recently emerging headwinds. One of those stems from the expectation that the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election could extend well past November 5, Election Day. A survey of our clients during the webinar showed that roughly 75% of them believe that the results will only be made clear between mid-November and the end of the year. VIX futures trading suggests that the market agrees. The VIX term structure is currently inverted and is staying inverted past election day, implying that markets expect larger volatility moves near-term. This makes sense to Lee: Intuitively, we can imagine equity markets would be on hold until after this election decision is made.
Fundstrat Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton is also wary of what might happen to markets in November. This week, he told us that near-term equity trends look fragile. This assessment is based in part on recent breadth and momentum readings, which he told us at our weekly research huddle have gotten increasingly worse in the last couple weeks. Breadth is now abysmal, he said, noting that the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving averages is now down at a very low level of 36%. Thats notable because in recent history, when weve gotten to those levels, like back in September, back in August, back in June and April, the market has shown pretty big corrections into that time.
My thinking is that November is going to be a down month, Newton said. On an intermediate term, however, the market still looks healthy to him. The overall level of the percentage of stocks that are within 20% of their 52 week highs is still at 84% so thats still very, very good.
#8
dTraderB
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Posted 04 November 2024 - 07:27 AM
On this day in 1929: In an attempt to calm panicking investors, the New York Stock Exchange said it would be open for trading only three hours a day. Investors took no comfort, trading more than twice the level of a normal full day's trading.
#10
dTraderB
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Posted 04 November 2024 - 08:12 AM
Es short 5765
Nq short 20168
