76% Bulls?!?!?

TSP had 76% Bulls in their weekly poll Thursday. Now, obviously, the market looked pretty Bullish Thursday, but 76% seems a bit much.

The problem is, do amateur investors matter any more?

The stocks above their 200-day's are lagging badly, BUT look at the Midcaps! That type of relative strength isn't exactly Bearish.

I'm looking for a pullback, but I'll bet it's a bear trap.

TSP bulls are on the rampage, but this sentiment indicator seems to get all bulled up pretty quickly if the market rallies.  The plot below shows a four week average of the TSP Bulls - Bears.  Its been up to these levels several times since the recent 2023 low.  The market pulls back and then it just marches on up yet again. 

What I'm waiting for is the AAII guys to get all giddy.  As you can see below these guys just don't seem to get as excited as they used to.  This current record rally hasn't been able to get more than 53 or so percent bullish.  When they finally join the party full tilt like the good ole days, it will probably be time to hit the door running.

Regards,

Douglas

I'll bet this week they (AAII) are way bulled-up!

Nope, not yet.  The AAII Bull reading for the 13th of November was still less than 50% at 49.8%.  So despite a roaring rally, less than half of these ornery pessimists see the glass half full.  Even a dyed-in-the-wool bear like me published a bullish EWave chart this week.  Heck if I know what it will take to get them all "bulled-up", the second coming maybe, who knows.  

While we're talking about sentiment, the CNN quasi-sentiment index is doing something interesting.  It's diverging with the indexes as can be seen below.  In the past this sort of divergence has led to at least a brief spell of selling if not "healed"  pretty quickly.

Regards,

Douglas