Uncle Buck Close to resistance, and will rates

reverse as well and give us the rate  cut we never really got?

Just not in a hurry to cut, but the Fed may still need to cut next year after Jan. 20th ......................... 

 

Just not in a hurry to cut, but the Fed may still need to cut next year after Jan. 20th ......................... 

 

I'm saying the market will give us the rate cut

 

 

Just not in a hurry to cut, but the Fed may still need to cut next year after Jan. 20th ......................... 

 

I'm saying the market will give us the rate cut

 

Bought on the rumor and likely selling on the news for USD and rates .......................

Edited by redfoliage2, 15 November 2024 - 08:23 AM.

Slupert, the futures volume has not peaked as it has at other relatively recent Uncle Buck tops as shown in the light blue circles on the finviz.com plot below, so maybe not a top just yet, but you are right and the dollar is approaching a 2023 pivot top resistance highlighted by the uppermost yellow flat trend line.  If it can break that yellow fellow, the top of the blue channel is a long way away.  

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 15 November 2024 - 11:20 AM.

Uh oh, it's backing off from that pivot.  Come on baby you can do it, break right though it.  Hope cheering helps.  I suppose it can't hurt.  

Regards,

Douglas

USD had a great run recently, but likely it's a head-fake and it's likely a top here for the currency as the election outcome will lead to tax cuts and thus deficit expansion in fiscal policy.  How tax cuts can cover fast rising living expenses from high tariffs for mid and low income Americans?  All they can do when prices going up fast is to tighten up their wallets, that will hurt the economy so the currency ...............................

Edited by redfoliage2, 15 November 2024 - 01:34 PM.

USD had a great run recently, but likely it's a head-fake and it's likely a top here for the currency as the election outcome will lead to tax cuts and thus deficit expansion in fiscal policy.  How tax cuts can cover fast rising living expenses from high tariffs for mid and low income Americans?  All they can do when prices going up fast is to tighten up their wallets, that will hurt the economy so the currency ...............................

Manufacturing is the biggest wealth creator in any country. Followed by mining (includes oil & gas mining).

China went from a poor country to become worlds largest economy (based on PPI) by focusing on manufacturing.

PPI is purchasing power index. Whopper which sells for $5.95 in CA, sells for $1.95 in China. USA adds $5.95 to GDP, China adds $1.95 to GDP. That is why PPI is more realistic than dollar based GDP. 

Tariffs are a tool to make harder for imports to compete with local manufacturing. And it is a tool to be used to negotiate FAIR trade. First commerce secretary of USA, Alexander Hamilton, imposed tariffs on imports from England and that helped expand American manufacturing. 

During Trump's first term, more businesses moved into USA than left USA, because of lower cost of energy and help from tariffs. Manufacturing jobs pay higher wages than jobs in retail. Tariffs are a long term solution, not short term. In short term prices of stuff imported from China will increase. Later on as more manufacturers set up shop in USA, wages go up, and economy gets stronger.

Edited by pdx5, 16 November 2024 - 02:01 PM.