the bull is not over, but these are the last stages of it

there's a last run left, but then between February and March in my opinion the card castle comes down.

I previously thought April, but I'm not sure they can hold for so long.

I think it's more important the time lenght of it and in my opinion a one year bear market is probably at the horizon. As for the indexes, sincerely I've got no idea how low they may

go, but for example some stocks that I constantly follow on my monitor might lose something like 80%, which thing they have done in the past and then they have recovered. Given that

it's more than one single stock that looks like so weak I would not be surprised if the spx goes as low as 4200 or something like that. I don't expect a two years' bear market like it was 

the burst of the internet bubble in 2000, but I don't expect a mild correction either. However at this point all of what I'm talking about is just speculation. I need patience to see first if they start

to push the market down in next year's time window that I said and then I need to see what kind of force they put to make the market drop. Time will tell.       

since the 2022 market bottom, which I perfectly identified (but it is a lot easier to me to predict market bottoms than it is to predict market tops) the market drop which might occurr in early 2025 is my first 

bearish prediction. In other words I'm not one of those who claim market tops every time the market farts, however such a thing doesn't make my prediction of a market top around early 2025, more credible.

It's just my idea and given that this place is called fearless forecasters and not fearfull forecasters, it seems to me logical to express my opinion when I'm getting bearish in the long term and not just when

I'm bullish. 

Edited by andr99, 17 November 2024 - 06:11 AM.

I see Dec 9/10 as the top and a hard drop into Jan 6 like the COVID crash, FED is reducing liquidity like 2020