Risk Windows for the Week of 18 November

My risk summation system predicts that the windows in the next week or so which have the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday November 18th thru the morning of Tuesday November 19th and the afternoon of Friday November 22nd thru Monday the 25th.

 

Last week, well what can I say about the risk window, nailed it comes to mind.  Probably will get reversed this coming week, but hey, it sure looks nasty on the plot below and there's this big gap that needs filling just below.

 

Regards,

Douglas

Sorry about the double post.  I don't know how I manged to double click that danged thing.  Oh well.  If the "nasty" looking top above is for real and not just another bear trap, the question is then of course, how low does the DOW go?  The three trend lines below each with at least three touches are a possibility depending on how big a bear you are.  The green trend line says just 43k or so, the blue line says roughly 40k and for the pessimists in the house and lovers of interior trend lines, the red one says somewhere around 38k.  Pick your poison and place your bet.

 

 

Regards hopefully one time only,

Douglas

I’ll be the Contrarian here, Douglas. in the very short term, I am Bullish. Based on the 11/15 full moon (these pivot the market turns) that took place after the close, option expiration (which exaggerates moves) and many oversold oscillators, I purchased SOX calls minutes prior to the markets closing on Friday. They have 11/21 and 11/9 expirations. On a Gap up I’ll exit the first ones, expir8ng sooner. The 11/29 calls I’ll hold for a few days.

cycletimer, short term (next couple of days) I'm bullish too expecting a reversal.  The  DJIA is moving down on the 15 minute chart at the top of this thread into my Mon - early Tues 18-19 Nov risk window which means it should turn up at the beginning of this week if the risk window is working. The green, blue, red trend line chart is a weekly so in that time frame I'm a bear thinking one of the colored lines will get hit in the next couple of weeks after the shorter time frame bounce up.  Once that line tap is done my current bullish EWave count expects the DJIA to head once again to new highs. 

 

So short term bull, intermediate term bear and longer term bull none of which is probably correct given my lousy luck. 

 

Regards,

Douglas  

By the way, the AD line divergence shown by the two blue lines on the AD line and NYA index plot below are helping fuel my intermediate bear call.  

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

For the record, I entered two ES contracts tonight and plan to hold overnight. First one @ 5901.75, the other buy was 5907.25 on a stop.  I have one more order in to buy at 5911.25 on a stop.  This thing could run to 5948 followed by 5961 between now and Tuesday, if we made a low on Friday’s close.

Well, the DJIA just ran through the first down side target green trend line in the plot a couple of posts up at about 43,000.  The DJIA is just now clawing its way back above 43k but it is unclear if it's going to be able to hold it.  My short term bullish call this past weekend should have been very, very short term bullish, like a couple of hours or so.  The intermediate term bear seems to have jumped the gun and is seizing control away from the short term bull.   If, and that should be a 40 font, the low this morning holds in the risk window, it can still be a turn, but if the DJIA continues down, the risk window becomes an acceleration event and Katy better bar the door cause gap close at 42.2K, here we come. 

 

cycletimer, I hope you were able to get out of the ES contracts at a profit when the S&P ran up yesterday.  There's one terrible looking island in the 15minute S&P chart below.  Chart patterns don't always work out, but this is a real beaut.  

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Well, the risk window is about to close and this morning's low looks like it's going to hold while making a double bottom and closing a gap to boot. Nice save.  Now the question is can the SPX take out the island pattern gap too and negate that ugly sucker?  There are dead bears strewn all down the trail run over by this bull, so I definitely wouldn't rule it out. 

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

The mad rush into Nvidia has gradually cooled in the last six months as can be seen below in the divergence of the on balance volume red trend line with the black price and in the falling volume green trend line.  If tomorrow's earnings, etc. numbers beat, those doubting Thomas's waiting on the side lines will undoubtedly be forced to join the party and probably drive a breakout of the purple wedge to the upside.  If the folks voting with their feet have been right, a break down might be in the offing. This won't be a mystery for long since NVDA announces earnings tomorrow after the close.

  

 

Regards,

Douglas