"TRUMP TRADE" reverses - YEAR-END RALLY ?

I will post MCCLENNAN'S ARTICLE ON POST-ELECTION TREND but I think there is a strong DECEMBER & JANUARY RALLY ahead IF MIDEAST & RUSSIA-UKRAINE-N KOREA do not blow up into global crises.


"ASIAN MARKETS
Asian markets could be in for a rocky ride on Monday, as rising U.S. bond yields, a surging dollar and a wobble on Wall Street on Friday call into question the wisdom of buying local assets.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on Thursday - that the central bank is in no rush to lower interest rates - continue to reverberate around world markets.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield on Friday hit 4.50% for the first time in over five months, and Wall Street fell. The Nasdaq lost more than 2% and has fallen four days in a row - the last time it did that was in April.

The MSCI World equity index has also fallen four days in a row, its longest losing streak since the first week of September, while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index lost 4.35%, its biggest weekly decline since June, 2022.

If that wasn't enough for emerging market investors, they are having to grapple with an extraordinary rally in the U.S. dollar.

The dollar index last week leapt 1.6%, hit its highest in over a year, and recorded a seventh weekly rise in a row. It is no doubt due for a correction, but momentum is strong and it looks like it will take some bravery and conviction to stand in its way right now.

Goldman Sachs's emerging market financial conditions index last week spiked to a three and a half month high.

Wow, bear markwt, AVI?

The Market Pinball Wizard
by Avi Gilburt
Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You
Nov. 17, 2024 1:18 PM ET

"...At this point in time, we are tracking what I believe will become a major long-term market top. I have no clear and convincing evidence that we have struck that top yet, as the overlapping structure with which we are contending is attempting to cloud that path.

Now, if you believe that these are the musings of some perma-bear, may I remind you that this is the same person who called for a correction at the end of 2015 from 2100 to 1775, with an expectation thereafter for a global melt-up. May I remind you that this is the same person who called for a continuation rally to 2600+ in October of 2016 no matter who wins the election next month. May I remind you that this is the same person who suggested going long at 2200SPX with an expectation that the market was going to 4000+ despite all the negativity at the time regarding Covid.

I am hardly a perma-bear. Rather, I do my best to view the market from an objective perspective in order to remain on the correct side of the trend the great majority of the time"
https://seekingalpha...-warning-to-you

Edited by dTraderB, 17 November 2024 - 06:55 PM.

FUNDSTRAT seems a bit worried about ST market:
Is Inflation Threatening to Hold Back Stocks?
Stocks gave back their gains from the post-election surge last week, and then some. Much of that followed worries about inflation and its effect on Federal Reserve policy. Investors got the chance to review fresh inflation this week, with CPI showing inflation no closer to the Feds 2% target. However, Core CPI arrived roughly in line with expectations, and to Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee, the October CPI report was actually better than it appears at first glance.

A 30% annualized surge in used car prices was one of the largest contributors to the rise in Core CPI MoM. Head of Data Science Ken Xuan hypothesized that used car prices were affected by previous hurricanes, and Lee concurred, viewing it as a distortion [that] will disappear next month. As he reminded us, The used-car CPI component tends to lag Manheim wholesale used car prices by two months. If this trend holds, then based on recent Manheim data. this component is set to tank.

As implied by Fed Funds futures trading, odds of another rate cut at the FOMC meeting in December surged from 55% to 82% after CPI data was released. Lee saw this as evidence that bond investors agree with his CPI assessment. In my view, the bond market realizes that this Core CPI of +0.28% should really be viewed as +0.22% MoM if one strips out the impact of the used-car component and that is basically at the Feds target.

Looking beyond the immediate-term and through to the end of the year, Lee remains constructive. At our weekly research huddle, he suggested that investors are being too skeptical: Just remember how many times this year that we heard someone warning that a recession was imminent, or that the labor market was falling apart, or that the Fed was behind the curve. I think that same wall of worry is in place now. But we know the seasonals are really pretty strong, and at the end of the day, the Fed is still dovish. Lee does see a possible near-term issue, which is discussed in the Chart of the Week below.

Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton also has near-term concern. Broader breadth, on a larger scale, is very good in my view, he said, but short-term breadth is what concerns me. Historically after elections, weve seen the market start to turn up sharply, with breadth of four-to-one or even five-to-one positive. But this time it was more like three-to-two. Almost a third of stocks did not participate in the post-Election Day rally. I still have a lot of confidence in the stock market between now and next spring or summer, but Im just not certain its going to be a straight shot. I have short-term concerns, and by short-term I mean probably over the next four or five weeks. I think its definitely wise not to get too complacent right now.

Small net short into new week. I am still bearish but ready to reverse QUICKLY, especially as NVDA earnings approach. Will NVDA disappoint? Possible... I will open STRANGLE tomorrow.

Nq short 20504.5

Es short 5900

Nq short 20504.5

Es short 5900

TOM is bullish into December:
"...If you're still clinging to the hopes of a secular, or even cyclical, bear market right now, I think you need to leave personal biases at the door and look at this market objectively. All-time highs nearly always beget more all-time highs. In my lifetime, I've only seen TWO all-time highs that marked major tops - one in 1973 and the other in year 2000. Constantly searching for that major top is what leads to significant underperformance. Personally, I believe the next major top (leading to a secular bear market) is most likely a decade away. We'll all find out together.

So I'm in a position believing that stock prices are going to go higher. I'm also of the belief that many of the same leaders shown above in the Top 12 groups since 2013 are going to lead the next leg higher in this secular bull market. Therefore, I'm paying particularly close attention to these charts......and one of them just broke out and started to lead on a relative basis during the past week.

https://stockcharts....-out-a-724.html

The other TOM:
:....the immediate prospects of a November top and temporary dip is a common theme from both instances. The difference in 1964 was that there was not a great upheaval from the prior practices like there was in 1980-81. We appear, from all of the news reports, to be facing a great upheaval this time, and such things usually do not go as smoothly as everyone was hoping they would right after the election.

Tom McClellan
https://www.mcoscill...ve_seen_before/

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) posted at 10:10 AM on Sun, Nov 17, 2024:
Key Events This Week:

1. October Housing Starts data - Tuesday

2. Nvidia, $NVDA, Reports Earnings - Wednesday

3. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday

4. October Existing Home Sales data - Thursday

5. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI data - Friday

6. MI Consumer
(https://x.com/Kobeis...4600534087?s=03)

Close es short 5897.5

Small net short into new week. I am still bearish but ready to reverse QUICKLY, especially as NVDA earnings approach. Will NVDA disappoint? Possible... I will open STRANGLE tomorrow.

Nq short 20504.5

Es short 5900

Nq short 20504.5

Es short 5900

Es long 5896.25

Close es short 5897.5

Small net short into new week. I am still bearish but ready to reverse QUICKLY, especially as NVDA earnings approach. Will NVDA disappoint? Possible... I will open STRANGLE tomorrow.

Nq short 20504.5

Es short 5900

Nq short 20504.5

Es short 5900

Stan Harley is Besrish and calling for the TOP which he believes took place last week. I believe the market rises for the first part of this week. Next CYCLE TURN is 11/21 (HIGH?)