But lately, the few letters I have read in New Market Analysis Area, he has been cautious.
Will Bullish Zealots Be Purged? Is the title of his 2/15 letter.
"...It isn't fair to suggest we dispute bullish fundamentals; in fact we argued this thrust of a friendly monetary policy by the Fed when few others did during the crucial 2001-'02 timeframe. It hasn't changed; but an excess of those joining the chorus of celebrants 'now realizing' this five-year-plus old fiscal philosophy has developed, is what needs correcting. So that's the point here; we're not secular bearish; just desire a correction.
"...Overall continue to think major Senior Indexes ideally reverse anytime; considerably so maybe.
"...it's the shorter-run that is so extended that historically not having correction is inherently dangerous. It's preferable that the adjustment occur sooner rather than later, for a bullish longer-term healthy condition to prevail.
"...As a matter of historical note it's only when everyone's 'already in', because optimism reigns supreme, that matters can be 'rocked' by events other than a market valentine.
(Sounds like he's talking sentiment.)
PS: Gene has always contended that crashes come from OVERSOLD markets!
Gene's 2/28 comments:
"If more than a mild adjustment; things may rebound (and will rebound) periodically, but when/if they fail and for the second or third time (more) take-out the initial lows, risk of a plunge of serious magnitude..."
Edited by Rogerdodger, 03 March 2007 - 01:41 PM.